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Wow.
As always, thanks. Lots of work there, Bruce.
A couple things strike me.
First, the superficiality of the CBO study is staggering, obvious and hard to understand. It seems that their whole reason for existence revolves around providing a perspective that avoids such twisted analysis. The twist of omission- inexplicable, rendering their work here of little use.
How did the Downing Street memo guy put it? "The facts were skewed to fit the intelligence", or something like that?
Second, Krugman is at war with most of the rest of the uncollared economists, as epitomized by Simon Johnson, on the subject of "Too big to fail" banks. He sees no need to break them up- just regulate them adequately.
Johnson, and many others see the very existence of a political force so powerful to be beyond real regulation, potentially destructive to democratic government, or even just any adequate government.
There was a time when Krugman would have seen this right away, I think.  
I think Krugman is seriously wrong twice, and is beginning to look a bit captured himself- by the big "O".

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Mon Apr 12th, 2010 at 01:22:13 PM EST
... Prize Winner, which is to say a mainstream economist with all the severe limitations that implies.

When he takes off his economist hat and puts on his political commentator hat, he can sometime see something that a mainstream economist would not, and he is definitely a mainstream economist with rather progressive policy goals ... but he is still a mainstream economist.

One of the most pernicious biases of the mathematical modeling economists is that if they do not have a model for something that simple observation will confirm is happening, they enter an effect of "0". The burden of proof is on reality to prove that it ought to be incorporated into the model.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Apr 12th, 2010 at 05:28:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wm. White, speaking at Soros's INET meeting recently commented: "Even an economist will admit that something is possible after it has happened." But if the event is inconvienient, instead of changing the theory they seem to prefer to label the event "an outlier" or "an anomoly". So long as they are rewarded for being blind and punished for describing what they actually see this will remain the case.

Voltaire wrote a fable in which he said "In the Kingdom of The Blind the one eyed man is King." In the fable the blind population put out the eye of the one eyed king.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Apr 14th, 2010 at 10:25:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The story is actually by H. G. Wells, while the proverb seems to go back at least to 1522. If Voltaire ever said anything related to this, it is unknown to Google.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Apr 14th, 2010 at 10:37:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I had wondered why I could not find it in Voltair's Zadig! Google identifies it as an old Greek proverb credits Erasmus  quoting it. Even though I read all of H.G. Well's novels as part of a seminar, I don't recall coming across it as his, but I was also taking a course on the Enlightenment at the same time.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Apr 14th, 2010 at 11:09:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As I already said, but much better worded:
"most men - not only those considered clever, but even those who are very clever and capable of understanding most difficult scientific, mathematical, or philosophic, problems - can seldom discern even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as obliges them to admit the falsity of conclusions they have formed, perhaps with much difficulty -- conclusions of which they are proud, which they have taught to others, and on which they have built their lives." Leo Tolstoy.


"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char
by Melanchthon on Wed Apr 14th, 2010 at 10:40:58 AM EST
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"Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof."

- J.K. Galbraith

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Apr 14th, 2010 at 07:13:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Marbury: dept. of sounded good at the time

[B]y 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.

Paul Krugman, 1998.



Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Apr 14th, 2010 at 01:03:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I beg to differ.
Krugman too sees the very existence of a political force so powerful to be beyond real regulation, potentially destructive to democratic government, or even just any adequate government. He DID write that he wanted the big financial players smaller, for that very reason.

His point is that doing it will not prevent financial crises and that he disagrees with people advocating only having smaller banks, without regulating them.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed Apr 14th, 2010 at 11:21:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, but this is a diary about Krugman's argument regarding the cost and benefit of policies to slow the rapidly escalating climate chaos, where the narrow, stovepiped "consensus of mainstream economic modelers" is accorded parity with an actual scientific consensus.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Apr 15th, 2010 at 12:49:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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