One Version | 29 comments (29 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

You can see here the yield of German bonds in the secondary market.

The deal was struck at a rate of 4.83% for 3-year bonds. 200 basis points higher than IMF loans.
There is a 50 basis points surcharge added that brings the cost of the loans to Greece to 5.33%.

For 3 years' maturity the yield for German bonds is 1.34%, making the IMF spread 1.5% and the EU spread 4%

Greece did a deal just two weeks ago after the last so-called agreement where they sold 5 billion euros worth of 7-year bonds at a rate of 5.9%. The auction was oversubscribed.

The yield on German bonds for 7 years' maturity is 2.66%. This makes the market spread at that recent Greek auction 1.23%

Reuters: The yield on short-dated Greek government bonds fell by over a full point on Monday, after after euro zone finance ministers on Sunday approved a 30 billion euro aid mechanism for Greece.

The move took the 2-year bond yield to around 5.9 percent, below the 10-year bond yield, according to traders. That normalised the country's yield curve after it inverted last week on fears over Greece's ability to fund its debt. However, bid offer spreads were wide at around 90 basis points.
...
The Greek/German 10-year bond yield spread GR10YT=TWEB DE10YT=TWEB narrowed to 355 basis points versus 409 basis point at Friday's settlement close. The cost of protecting government debt against default in Greece and other peripheral euro zone member states tightened on Monday, according to credit default swap monitor CMA DataVision.

Note that this means that the yield for 2-year Greek bonds was 6.9%, above the 10-year bond yield (the curve was inverted due to fears over the short-term default prospects). A 5.33% cap on the interest rate up to 3 years helps bring the short-term rates lower though they still remain above the interest rate of the IMF/EU loans.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 13th, 2010 at 11:53:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: One Version (none / 0)

However, bid offer spreads were wide at around 90 basis points.

Note that this means the liquidity of the bonds is very low. The yield may have dropped but there are no takers.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 13th, 2010 at 12:06:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: One Version (4.00 / 2)

I wonder if the net impact of what we're seeing here is that Greek debt--held by German and French banks--is rolling over to Greek banks with every new issue. And the Greek bank is allowed to keep buying because its Greek bonds are cleared as assets through the ECB. In the end, the Greek banks will own a much heftier amount of Greek debt--rather than banks in the eurozone--and that this will be the cutoff point for Greece, the point at which they can conceivably be lead to restructure without other euro countries taking the hit. This would mean the collapse of Greek banks, because it would be absurd to transfer the debt back to the country after this whole fiasco.

But then again, Greece did have a TARP program last year, and from Frank S.'s posts, I'm shocked to discover that Ireland is taking on the equivalent of 60% debt to GDP in toxic paper from its own banks.

Am I reading this wrong? After the Greek banks take on the bulk of Greek debt, they will then transfer that debt back to the nation?

Is this a little like those people who transfer balances from one credit-card to another in endless circles?

I have a relative who does mortgages in NYC and he tells me he has clients who constantly roll-over interest-only mortgages to new ones, and by so doing, managing to cut their living expenses by more than half. You can buy a 800 sq. foot Manhattan apartment for $400k, but that same apartment can cost $2400 to rent. The interest on $400k at current rates is so much lower than rent, even when you add closing costs of $5k for each new loan you take on (interest only is locked in for 5 to 10 years).

Is this what the bankers have cooking for Greece?

by Upstate NY on Tue Apr 13th, 2010 at 12:19:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: One Version (none / 0)

Greek debt--held by German and French banks--is rolling over to Greek banks with every new issue

Where do you see evidence of this? Do you mean the Greek private banks or the Greek Central Bank?

And the Greek bank is allowed to keep buying because its Greek bonds are cleared as assets through the ECB.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 13th, 2010 at 12:25:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: One Version (none / 0)

Greek private banks. Apparently, they are the ones buying massively. I read so many of these articles daily that this nugget of info gets lost, but usually the one to report this is Reuters. The National Bank of Greece ( private bank) is the biggest buyer.

by Upstate NY on Tue Apr 13th, 2010 at 12:36:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: One Version (none / 0)

I think your scenario

is actually a good thing...

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 13th, 2010 at 12:48:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: One Version (none / 0)

If so, then why didn't Ireland try the same method?

by Upstate NY on Tue Apr 13th, 2010 at 12:59:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: One Version (none / 1)

Their banks failed first, and their public debt was relatively low.

Public sector balance + private sector balance = current account balance

Ireland had a hole in the private sector and a healthy public sector.