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Insurance ranking of European volcanos.
A major eruption of Italy's Mount Vesuvius could result in 8,000 fatalities, 13,000 serious injuries and total economic losses of more than $24 billion, according to a new study supported by the Willis Research Network (WRN) that puts Vesuvius at the top of the list of Europe's 10 most dangerous volcanoes.

The WRN, funded by Willis Group Holdings (NYSE: WSH), the global insurance broker, is an industry-leading public-private partnership between Willis and many of the top scientific research institutions in the world.

The WRN volcano risk ranking, which examines European volcanoes with potentially affected populations of greater than 10,000, was developed by researchers from the University of Cambridge, the University of Naples Federico II and Willis Re, Willis' reinsurance broking arm.

This study was released on April 15, which is a bit embarassing since
The Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland that erupted yesterday was not on the list, but the Hekla volcano, Iceland's most active, was ranked as the ninth most dangerous volcano in Europe.
I guess they didn't consider the effect on air travel.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Apr 19th, 2010 at 06:57:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
well, they probably look first at casualties and then damage to real estate.
Full closure of the European airspace is rather unprecedented...

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Apr 19th, 2010 at 08:29:43 AM EST
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Actuarial analysis is onle as good as your historical data. Last time Katla erupted the only aircraft in Europe were doing WWI dogfights.

The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 19th, 2010 at 08:40:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And the last time Vesuvius erupted seriously (as opposed to local erruptions up to 1944) was? The number of casulaties surely depends above all on the ability to predict it reliably shortly before it happens, and on the ability of the government to evacuate people.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Apr 19th, 2010 at 08:46:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The salient point is, casualty is certain. Proximity to the site determines number of fatalities and casualties, regardless of eruption type. Consider this: Pyroclastic surges can reach speeds of 1050 km/h.

There isn't a plan devised by man to evacuate every persons within that perimeter to safety.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Apr 19th, 2010 at 11:25:33 AM EST
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Of course, but I still have no idea how they came up with a figure of 8.000 deaths. An eruption on the scale of 2.000 BC might kill millions. And the ranking seems to take into account only the damag caused, and not the probability  of it happening - the latter is just as hard to estimate, but surely just as important for an insurance company.

The Italian papers have all been covering this report, perhaps with a feeling of being number 1 (not to mention 3 and 4 as well).

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Apr 19th, 2010 at 02:27:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fair enough.

You want the formula. If I can find the formula of levelized cost of energy, you too can find the formula  for mortality "attributed to catastrophic event x" somewhere in the innerboobz.

Via con dios.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Apr 21st, 2010 at 01:45:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
as the case may be.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Apr 21st, 2010 at 01:48:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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