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In your view credit rating is "the dog" and market is "the tail"?
No, in my view the CDS market is a scam, and the credit rating agencies are in the business of advertisement, not analysis.
But if things worked as advertised, the rating agencies would be the dog and the CDS market would be the tail: The rating agencies should have more information than the market participants (that's the only economic justification for having rating agencies in the first place), so the market should take note of their opinions, not the other way around. If the rating agencies just slavishly follow the CDS market, then you might as well abolish the rating agencies and just use the market spread for credit default swaps instead.
As for Greece - beliefs that some nice aunty will back your cooked books full of debts is irrational to say the least.
Not when the nice aunty in question is in a currency union with you.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
However your defense of their irrational grading policy sounds unconvincing.
Their ratings is pure scam and unlike manipulations on CDS market their questionable rates stand exposed.
CDS issuers have been shown repeatedly to be inadequately capitalised to face an actual default on the underlying, which smells of a scam where CDS premiums are collected with no intention of paying up. The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
everybody can use CDS data right now.
Even if that were true, which as Mig points out below it isn't, capital market prices are completely worthless for estimating things about the real economy.
And rating agencies have the right to publish their assesments.
But they won't, because that would demonstrate to all the world that their ratings are advertising campaigns rather than serious analysis.
I'm not defending it. I'm saying that bad as the ratings agencies undoubtedly are, the capital markets are even worse. So you can't use data from the capital markets to indict the rating agencies.
What you can use to indict the rating agencies is the fact that they've been wrong on any issue of any real importance that they have commented on. That is an indictment that matters.
The failure of their assessments to correlate with the whims of the capital markets is worth only a shrug, since the whims of the capital markets say nothing at all about the real economics of the activity they are supposed to reflect.
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