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welcome to the fiercely competitive field of uncovincing defenders of their rating scams.
Market prices are known not to be predictors of anything - they tell you how much it costs you to hedge particular exposures as of right now, and in small volumes. They don't tell you what the probability of anything is. In particular, CDS spreads are not probabilities of default.
The probabilities of default quoted as equivalent to various credit ratings are also nonsense, as I have said before on this forum. The brainless should not be in banking -- Willem Buiter
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