The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
There are two considerations: Debt to GDP ratio and country size. Here's a picture of the Eurozone:
The diagonal lines are at 75%, 60% and 50% Debt-to-GDP ratio. 75% and 50% are the 1st and 3rd quartiles of the Eurozone, and 60% is the well-known Growth and Stability (suicide) Pact threshold.
Smaller countries are most vulnerable to a market run because it take less capital at risk to manipulate their debt market. Countries with a higher Debt-to-GDP ratio are also most vulnerable because the threat of default can be talked up more credibly.
It looks to me like Belgium and Portugal are next after Greece. Italy is an attractive target, but too large. Austria, the Netherlands and Ireland would be a second tier, of which Ireland has already capitulated and both bailed out their financial sector and engaged in "model" fiscal austerity.
Maybe looking at deficit would make Spain look more vulnerable, but on Debt and GDP, it is only a 3rd tier prey for the wolfpack. By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Frank Schnittger - Sep 10 3 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Sep 1 6 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Sep 3 32 comments
by Oui - Sep 6 3 comments
by gmoke - Aug 25 1 comment
by Frank Schnittger - Aug 22 57 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Sep 17
by Oui - Sep 154 comments
by Oui - Sep 151 comment
by Oui - Sep 1315 comments
by Oui - Sep 13
by Oui - Sep 124 comments
by Oui - Sep 1010 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Sep 103 comments
by Oui - Sep 10
by Oui - Sep 92 comments
by Oui - Sep 84 comments
by Oui - Sep 715 comments
by Oui - Sep 72 comments
by Oui - Sep 63 comments
by Oui - Sep 54 comments
by gmoke - Sep 5
by Oui - Sep 47 comments
by Oui - Sep 49 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Sep 332 comments