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Tories whining about moral anything is always fun to watch.

Fun spots:

Cameron parachuted in some black and/or female and/or working class Tory candidates, very likely for show. They lost.

Cameron couldn't win a majority against one of the least popular PMs in recent history, after the expenses scandal, bigotgate, massive spending on marginals, support from Murdoch and the gutter MSM, and last year's econo-meltdown and banking crisis.

The markets expected a clear Tory win. They were wrong.

But... Clegg could still put the knife in by siding with Cameron. I wouldn't be completely surprised if he did that.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:10:45 AM EST
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I don't think Brown hates the UK and I think he'll do what he has to in order to see to it that a LibDem/Labour coalition happens, especially if they have an actual majority of seats together.  Frankly I think the deal has already been discussed.

Gordon Brown has had a few weeks to get used to losing and a year before that to get used to the idea of fucking Cameron in charge.  I'm sure it makes his skin crawl as much as it does everyone else's.  There is joy in being a kingmaker and surprisingly he has this one last shot at it.

by paving on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:22:45 AM EST
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Labour plus the Lib/Dems are - if the BBC predictions hold - 13 seats short of 326.  

The Tories all by themselves: 14 short.  

Brown has first shot at forming a government and then it's up to Cameron -- if I understand the process correctly.

Tory + Lib/Dem is a solid majority.  

Tory + a miscellaneous gaggle is on sufferance.

shrug

Clegg's price should be the Tories passing PR?

But I'm no British Parliament tactician.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:33:24 AM EST
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Damn.

Tories are 18 short.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:34:29 AM EST
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Anybody else Brown can throw on the bone pile to get a majority?  LibDems are cheap, how about the regionals?
by paving on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:37:01 AM EST
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Brown is a boat anchor.  He is the most unpopular PM since ... well, I don't know when.  In my ignorant opinion Clegg would be a damn fool to go anywhere near him.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:39:20 AM EST
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I think Cameron is a much more dangerous coalition partner.  The next PM has a shit job anyway, Brown would be smart to give it to Clegg, let him be the front man for the "austerity" that the Labour cabinet actually engineers.  

If the LibDems learn anything from tonight's results it is that Labour is not as weak as everyone though three weeks ago. There is loyalty within the ranks and they are still viewed as the legitimate opposition to the Tories.  LibDems didn't show any sign of taking their place in that equation tonight.  

Brown is ruined and so are some of the other faces of NewLab that won't be missed.  The UK voted for part of the Labour platform.  A coalition needs to determine which parts of that platform can move forward and which ones cannot.  Does anybody seriously believe that Cameron will negotiate anything?  Any coalition partner will either be run over or shown to have made an egregious error three months later when they have to collapse the coalition.

Labour won enough votes tonight to avoid the appearance of illegitimacy provided that Gordon Brown is no longer PM.

And a large majority of the UK, in the popular vote, chose to vote for someone other than the Tories.  This argument depends on support for PR, which Labour is already going public with.

by paving on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:47:42 AM EST
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However you slice it, you get fail.

Clegg + Brown - old and smelly.
Clegg + Cameron - Clegg loses around half his supporters and not a few of his MPs overnight.
Cameron + Brown - just no.
A.N.Other + Clegg + PR - Clegg might go for this as a caretaker government while another election with PR is set up. It would give ANOther a change to establish themselves.

Brown is Labour's biggest liability, so a fresh face might swing things in an interesting direction.

But I still worry about Clegg + Cameron, and some pious self-serving nonsense about a government of stability in these difficult times, etc.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:47:43 AM EST
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OK, that's where I was leaning but hesitated to say.

The only thing the Tories can offer the Lib/Dems is PR.  Which would, most likely, split the Tories.

Clegg can offer to 'help' the Tories but not formally enter into some kind of informal pact/alliance/whatever which is the smart move?  He can do all kinds of "In these difficult times & etc. etc. blah-blah" while working to get PR through the Commons.  Actually becoming part of the government would be, I think, a mistake.  

Which implies a Tory minority government and another election in a year or so.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:57:18 AM EST
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What are the odds of the SNP joining with Labour and LibDem?  
by paving on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:48:40 AM EST
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I think that's a possibility, and wily old Salmond would probably do it if an SNP MP became Scottish Secretary.

But if I were Brown I'd impose a proviso that they would be replaced by someone from whichever party leads the Scottish government so if in 2011 Scotland reverts to Labour, then Labour would take back the Cabinet post.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 05:01:00 AM EST
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Cameron couldn't win a majority against one of the least popular PMs in recent history, after the expenses scandal, bigotgate, massive spending on marginals, support from Murdoch and the gutter MSM, and last year's econo-meltdown and banking crisis.

That's the elephant in the room few people seem to be talking about.

Cameron blew it.  No escaping the fact.  He's shy of 326 seats - predicted, god knows how it will all end - and without the Lib/Dems it's hard (for me) to see how he forms a stable government.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 01:47:48 AM EST
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In terms of the "expectations game" the clear winner tonight is actually Labour.  Tories needed a majority and LibDems needed to beat Labour.  All Labour needed to do was not get completely blown out of the frame.

They succeeded in that and now have the kingmaker role.  The UK has a situation where the current government has been partially defeated yet no other suitable victor has been established.  This means that the defeated party in power will draw up the terms of the armistice.  

Portions of the Labour platform won tonight.  I believe PR has also won.  What have the Tories won, exactly?  Their racist wing didn't get them over the top and everybody else is loathe to work with them.  Plus, the popular vote totals do not reflect a great desire for a Tory government.

by paving on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:19:17 AM EST
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Ideologically the Center-Left won but that's not the government the UK is going to get.

No way Conservatives and Labour form a 'National Unity' government, thus Labour can't play kingmaker.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:31:20 AM EST
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I think the only option for Labour and the Lib Dems is to get together with regionals, for a majority and put someone other than Brown in charge.

With all of them in together they are a clear popular majority.

This will be the first real coalition government you've seen in the UK, with everybody having to work together (except the Tories, who of course would never do such a thing) to get anything done.

Will Labour give in to PR?  Maybe.

Something to consider about the LibDems is their constituency.  After introduction of PR what distinguishes them?  I suspect they are like a bee that will quickly die after using their stinger.  In a PR scenario, Labour is not necessarily condemned to a minority future.  Unless you think most of the LibDem voters will somehow go Tory.  If they were to do such a thing they would have all done it tonight.

by paving on Fri May 7th, 2010 at 02:45:45 AM EST
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