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Agreed for now.  Tories are only pulling a swing of about 3-4% so far.  Looks like they're coming up a bit short on the swing in England but totally missing it everywhere else.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:09:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think there will be some damage in the whiter parts of the Midlands. So it's not a sure thing yet.

But it's looking better than I was expecting a couple of hours ago.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:15:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Could be.  Certainly Gedling was an encouraging result, though.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:16:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Damn My religious Loony got back in on a huge swing to tories

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:20:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry to hear that ceebs.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:23:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
23,247 holds Kettering. Second place Labour Phil Sawford on 14,153 votes.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:24:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Scotland and Wales you can pretty much forget the Tories.

But I'm 290 seats bid 310 seats offered for the Tories, I think....

The key point to me is if Labour and Lib Dem between them reach a majority (326) of seats and also a majority of the popular vote.

If they get both, then I reckon Brown might just cut a deal with Clegg.

Moreover, he'll do it quickly - maybe even tonight and tomorrow - before the Tories can parachute in and do what Salmond did in Scotland by trumpeting the 'win' all over the Press.

He could even square the SNP and Plaid Cymru if necessary by giving them the Scottish and Welsh Secretary jobs....

Interesting times.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:20:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ChrisCook:
In Scotland and Wales you can pretty much forget the Tories.

I'm afraid not for Wales.  We didn't have any Conservative MPs and now 3 are in at least.

by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:34:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He could even square the SNP and Plaid Cymru if necessary by giving them the Scottish and Welsh Secretary jobs....

Really, you think that the SNP will be bought off that easy?  I'm thinking at this point that the push to have a referendum on Scottish independence is going to be strong....

For the Lib Dems to partner with anyone, the question is going to be one of proportional representation.

This should be fun.

How many ways can you cut Britain up?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:15:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have never seen Brown look as happy or relaxed as he is now.

I reckon he cut a deal with the Lib Dems very recently - before Monday - and if they jointly get a plurality of votes and seats he'll resign as party leader and hand over as PM to Clegg, with a guarantee for PR.

It's an offer Clegg can't refuse, and it's an offer his Labour troops can't refuse either.  

If it happens, it'll happen quick, before the Tories can mobilise.

Time for a Change, indeed.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:24:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So Lib Dems get the least votes, and take home the PM position.  Oh the irony given the lines we were told but a week back.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:30:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That would be hilarious.

But I'm not convinced that NuLab could make it stick for long.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:37:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course if PR is forced through as the price of keeping Labor in government, a new election would only benefit the Lib Dems......

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:45:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've seen it happen a few time sin other countries.
by Upstate NY on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:44:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That might be just funny enough to get me to buy Chris's theory.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:57:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's certainly an offer Clegg can't turn down.  

Is Brown that street-smart?

Would the various Labour Powers-That-Be go for it?


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 10:37:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... then it matters which seats have been called - that's the appeal of the uniform swing, since each seat just adds to a simple average. If a proportional swing is more accurate, each seat would have to be weighted based on its prior majority to get an average swing.

It'll be interesting to see which works better.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu May 6th, 2010 at 09:32:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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