Angela's Pesky Election | 63 comments (63 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

we can say it's the Greens' choice.

Not necessarily, it's very thin. (Also, Özdemir made it quite clear a week ago that Red-Green is first choice.)

The ARD and ZDF seat projections at the moment give the same number of seats to CDU and SPD, but ARD's would make either of them + Greens one short of majority, ZDF's would give those combinations a majority of one. If SPD's advantage in the final count will be worth one more seat, that one seat might make out the coalition majority.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 12:43:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit poll (4.00 / 2)

The current ARD seat projection is just the case I drew up:

SPD 67
CDU 66
Greens 24
FDP 13
Left Party 11

(Total: 181, Majority: 91, SPD+Greens = 91)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 01:11:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit poll (4.00 / 3)

ZDF's is the same picture, but they give one overhang mandate more to CDU and SPD each.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 01:12:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit poll (4.00 / 2)

Sorry, the translation tool doesn't work for me. However it looks like the CDU-FDP lost its majority.

Landtagswahl in NRW: Schwarz-Gelb verliert Mehrheit | tagesschau.de

Nach nur fünf Jahren an der Macht ist die Koalition aus CDU und FDP in Nordrhein-Westfalen am Ende. Bei der Landtagswahl verlor das schwarz-gelbe Bündnis unter Ministerpräsident Jürgen Rüttgers (CDU) nach der Hochrechnung seine Mehrheit und kommt gemeinsam nur noch auf 41 Prozent.

But the SPD seems to have been loosing too. It seems the big winner are the Greens.

Landtagswahl in NRW: Schwarz-Gelb verliert Mehrheit | tagesschau.de

SPD verliert erneut
[Bildunterschrift: Schlechtes Ergebnis, dennoch Jubel: Wahlparty in der SPD-Zentrale in Düsseldorf ]
Auch die SPD verschlechterte sich noch einmal gegenüber ihrem Ergebnis von 2005, das mit 37,1 Prozent das schwächste für die Sozialdemokraten seit den 50er-Jahren gewesen war. Die SPD kommt der Hochrechnung zufolge auf 34,4 Prozent und liegt damit knapp hinter der CDU.
Gewinner der Wahl sind die Grünen. Sie verdoppelten gegenüber 2005 ihren Stimmenanteil fast von 6,2 auf 12,2 Prozent - das ist das beste Ergebnis, das sie je in Nordrhein-Westfalen hatten. Die Linkspartei schafft mit sechs Prozent erstmals den Einzug in den Düsseldorfer Landtag.

by Fran on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 01:16:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit poll (4.00 / 2)

Definitely.

And right now ARD is saying that Red/Green has a 1-seat majority.

Of course, the night is still young.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 01:22:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit poll (4.00 / 3)

They also have CDU and SPD level right now. But by past experience, the SPD shall move up again as counting progresses in the cities.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 01:30:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit poll (4.00 / 2)

Now CDU ahead by 0.2%, but seat projection still gives Red-Green a one-seat majority.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 02:02:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit poll (4.00 / 2)

In ZDF's just released next projection, SPD remains ahead by 0.2% and Red-Green retains majority on seats, but SPD and CDU are now level on seats like in ARD's.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 02:05:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit poll (none / 0)

How big a shift in seats is this?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 02:56:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit poll (none / 1)

Current ARD and ZDF projections of vote share and (vote share in 2005):
CDU: 34.3-34.7% (44.8%)
SPD: 34.5% (37.1%)
Greens: 12.2-12.4% (6.2%)
FDP: 6.6-6.8% (6.2%)
Left Party: 5.5-5.7% (3.1%)

Current ARD and ZDF projections of seats and (seats won in 2005):
CDU: 67-68 (89)
SPD: 66-68 (74)
Greens: 24-25 (12)
FDP: 13 (12)
Left Party: 11 (0)

It's roughly proportional, its a proportional election after all, save for overhang mandates. But there is some extra shift in the seats because of the Left Party's entry into parliament.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 03:37:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit poll (none / 0)

So a loss for the SPD, too, but a definite shift to the left with the Greens and Left Party gains.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 03:41:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit poll (4.00 / 3)

Yep. But for the SPD it feels like a gain (and for the FDP like a loss) because of the federal elections in-between.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 04:01:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit poll (none / 0)

ARD, 21:05: now they see the CDU 0.3% and one seat ahead... with that, CDU+Greens would have a majority of one.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 03:23:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit poll (none / 0)

ZDF updated its projection after 1 hour 50 minutes, they still see the SPD ahead by 0.1%, and their seat projection is unchanged.

Meanwhile, I checked the official count, which does not yet post state-wide summary, only the result of constituencies that already finished counting. Most large cities (Dortmund, Essen, Duisburg and Cologne) are still undeclared, while most rural areas declared. As the cities tend to tilt left, I still suspect the current ARD, ZDF projections (even if with correction factors) uare a bit skewed.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 04:07:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Interesting local trends (none / 0)

Greens above 20% in Bielefeld and Bonn. Left Party above 10% in Düsseldorf III, and near it in -- Bielefeld. Now that in Bielefeld, is not a usual correlation.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 04:20:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Interesting local trends (none / 0)

~~Düsseldorf~~ Duisburg. Also the place where the CDU got least (21.2%).

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 04:25:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Angela's Pesky Election | 63 comments (63 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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