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The CDU has been trying to paint the SPD galleon figure, Hannelore Kraft, as planning to form a coalition with the Greens - something she has firmly (and rather convincingly) denied.

Walking into the Ypsilanti trap, IMO.

Anyway, this is about when commentators started seeing an SPD/Green coalition within reach.

However, the latest polls indicate that a Grand Coalition may be the only option. As usual, that would damage the SPD, but also as usual, they would see no problem with it...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sat May 8th, 2010 at 01:56:06 PM EST
to form a coalition with the GreensLeft Party

Corrected in your diary too.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sat May 8th, 2010 at 02:16:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Whoops, thanks!

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt št gmail dotcom) on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 04:00:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Walking into the Ypsilanti trap, IMO.

I imagine that example was enough of a deterrent to keep her from ever attempting it.

As for the polls, fluctuations within the MoE could radically change the outlook.

I for one am not ruling out a GC with SPD as the senior partner.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt št gmail dotcom) on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 04:38:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I imagine that example was enough of a deterrent to keep her from ever attempting it.

What I mean is that by declaring that she won't coalition with the Left Party, she narrowed the SPD's post-election options, and allowed herself to be pushed by a red socks campaign out of an IMO baseless fear. The SPD's complex about the Left Party is really sad to watch.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 10:55:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm guessing its not the Ypsilanti, Michigan speed trap?

What is the rule for forming a government in a German state parliament - a majority of votes cast or a majority of seated representatives?

If its votes cast, there may be a policy range where The Left would sit in opposition but abstain on the vote of confidence and, eg, free their deputies to conscience votes on the state budget.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 04:23:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Majority of votes in parliament that approves the government (and sometimes before that the PM separately). Note that this approving majority is not necessarily a government majority: a party (or individual MPs) might choose to tolerate a minority government.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 04:33:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So for tactical purposes, it's majority of votes actually cast, while for psychological purposes it's majority of seats.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 07:06:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... you might ask what legislative body would be daft enough to do something like that based on seats, but the vote to squash a filibuster in the US Senate is not 60% of Senators voting but 60% of Senators in the body.

So its the US Senate that is daft enough to do that.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 09:43:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, majority. By government majority, I mean a majority consisting of the representatives of parties that signed a coalition agreement and have ministers in the government. But you can approve a government without being part of it.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon May 10th, 2010 at 02:18:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... majority of seats?

IOW, the sole middle ground between joining the government and voting against that government being formed is voting to approve the government without being in it.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon May 10th, 2010 at 10:56:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
More or less. But there can be different levels of this, too:
  1. the minority government and the party tolerating it can sign an agreement (this happened in Hessen), an agreement that may specify some crucial laws which the opposition party will approve too (the annual budgets for example);
  2. or there is just a written agreement between the parties about the government approval vote;
  3. or there is no agreement with an opposition party at all, only a vocal agreement with some opposition MPs, who may or may not be rebels within their party (I have now read on Wikipedia that a minority government in West Berlin in the eighties was such a case, with some freewheeling FDP MPs supporting a CDU minority government).


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon May 10th, 2010 at 02:42:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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