Current ARD and ZDF projections of vote share and (vote share in 2005):
CDU: 34.3-34.7% (44.8%)
SPD: 34.5% (37.1%)
Greens: 12.2-12.4% (6.2%)
FDP: 6.6-6.8% (6.2%)
Left Party: 5.5-5.7% (3.1%)

Current ARD and ZDF projections of seats and (seats won in 2005):
CDU: 67-68 (89)
SPD: 66-68 (74)
Greens: 24-25 (12)
FDP: 13 (12)
Left Party: 11 (0)

It's roughly proportional, its a proportional election after all, save for overhang mandates. But there is some extra shift in the seats because of the Left Party's entry into parliament.

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

ZDF updated its projection after 1 hour 50 minutes, they still see the SPD ahead by 0.1%, and their seat projection is unchanged.

Meanwhile, I checked the official count, which does not yet post state-wide summary, only the result of constituencies that already finished counting. Most large cities (Dortmund, Essen, Duisburg and Cologne) are still undeclared, while most rural areas declared. As the cities tend to tilt left, I still suspect the current ARD, ZDF projections (even if with correction factors) uare a bit skewed.

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}