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So, to repeat from last night in more detail:

  1. Red-Green (SPD+Greens): one short of majority, would be possible as minority government with Left Party outside support, but a leader of the latter was negative on it
  2. Black-Green (CDU+Greens): one short of majority
  3. Grand Coalition (CDU+SPD): would have comfortable majority
  4. Red-Red-Green (SPD+Left Party+Greens): would have majority, but SPD against
  5. Traffic Lights (SPD+FDP+Greens): would have majority, but NRW FDP strongly against the other two and vice versa
  6. Jamaica (CDU+FDP+Greens): would have majority, but NRW FDP and Greens incompatible

If I am a pessimist (from my political point of view), this is heading for a Grand Coalition. If I am an optimist, maybe the Greens can get the SPD swallow some level of cooperation with the Left Party.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon May 10th, 2010 at 02:26:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Franz Walter is a senior political scientist close to the Greens. In the past year or two, I noted him as one of the public figures laying the ideological foundation for (and implicitly advocating) Black-Green coalitions as a Green option.

Now in the SPIEGEL, Walter writes about an emotional revival for Red-Green in the populace, with the CDU's scare tactics no more working and Harz-IV blamed only on Schröder, Clement and Münte; reminiscences how the partners in NRW are much more ready for each other than back in the nineties (under Wolfgang "coal lobby" Clement) -- and ends with the suggestion that, would Red-Green see itself as a project, then they should now open and expand the Red [meaning: to the Left Party).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon May 10th, 2010 at 02:08:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The last few years saw the full emergence of a five part system (Fünfparteiensystem) in Germany: the federal parliament and most regional parliaments consist of the big CDU/CSU and SPD and the smaller FDP, Greens and the Left Party. This is a Reunification prcess: the Left Party spread in the West, and the Greens in the East. The exceptions that remain:

  • Left Party: Bavaria, Baden-Württenberg, Rhineland-Palatinate
  • Greens: Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
  • FDP: Hamburg

As polls stand, the exceptions could reduce to one state for each small party next year (when Rhineland-Palatinate, Baden-Württenberg and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern vote).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue May 11th, 2010 at 04:35:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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