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The 10pm result in the diary is the projection of public television ARD (second public television ZDF's 21:45 projection sees the SPD ahead).

But, as I predicted in the diary, the balance began to move back in the next projection:
CDU 34.6%
SPD 34.5%
Greens 12.1%
FDP 6.8%
Left Party 5.5%

Still, in seats, a Grand Coalition is the only two-party coalition with a majority:
CDU 67
SPD 67
Greens 23
FDP 13
Left Party 11


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 04:43:48 PM EST
Now CDU and SPD level again.
CDU 34.5%
SPD 34.5%
Greens 12.1%
FDP 6.8%
Left Party 5.6%

Seats unchanged.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 04:51:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ARD sees CDU ahead again.

CDU 34.6%
SPD 34.5%
Greens 12.1%
FDP 6.7%
Left Party 5.6%

seats unchanged. As for ZDF, they still see SPD ahead:

CDU 34.5%
SPD 34.6%
Greens 12.1%
FDP 6.7%
Left Party 5.6%

Their seat projection however is now identical to ARD's. No Red-Green then?... So the SPD's identity crisis can start again.

In the election TV shows, commentators emphasized that the SPD may have barred the option of a tripartite left-wing coalition, but not that of a Red-Green minority government with Left Party support. So will they pick that, or a Grand Coalition? (As for other tripartite variations, I don't think any of them are realistic in NRW.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun May 9th, 2010 at 06:16:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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