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The Fates are kind.
by Gaianne on Thu Jun 17th, 2010 at 12:17:22 AM EST
This is a real quality article. What if we had journalists who did actual reporting like this...

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Jun 17th, 2010 at 06:02:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
page him.  But there he was buried half-way down a thread of some hundred comments . . .  

Given his analysis, Matt Simmons' "ravings" make a kind of sense.  

But TOD is really down on Simmons right now, though they do not refute him.  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Thu Jun 17th, 2010 at 09:29:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But TOD is really down on Simmons right now

They are?

In other news, yesterday Mikael Höök of ASPO Sweden's board (I'm on it as well) was on morning TV commenting the Deepwater Horizon spill, and I must say that he performed excellently. :)

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Fri Jun 18th, 2010 at 06:18:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand | Nuking The Oil Slick?

I don't read Simmons much. As far as science is concerned, he is the layman.

Simmons reminds me of the line by Pacino
"I got ears, ya' know. I hear things."

There are plenty of other comments in that thread that either take for granted or dispute Simmons' credibility.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 18th, 2010 at 06:56:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Simmons is an oilman. He has some interesting things to say, but I would never assume one word that comes out of his mouth is not connected to his own financial interests.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Fri Jun 18th, 2010 at 01:07:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and all that, but Matt Simmons is smarter than most.  He pulled together the geological reports that enabled him to accurately predict the peaking of Saudi oil production several years before it happened, at a time when few imagined the Saudis could be close to peaking.  

So if someone wants to gainsay Simmons they really should have some good arguments lined up.  

The out-of-hand dissing smells of incompetence on the part of those dissing.  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Sat Jun 19th, 2010 at 03:32:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting comment, Saudi peaked back in 1980. Simmons wasn't nothing but an ordinary stock market investor back then - without disregarding the work he has done more recently.

As I wrote before, so far there is no evidence supporting Simmons's claims of a second leak, far from the BOP, flowing at 120 Kb/d. Also, given that no well at the GOM as ever produced more than 50 Kb/d, the changes of this being true are really slim.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Sat Jun 19th, 2010 at 03:53:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]


The Fates are kind.
by Gaianne on Sat Jun 19th, 2010 at 05:52:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep, they did. But not because of geological constraints. Central banker of the oil market and all that.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Sat Jun 19th, 2010 at 08:47:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What if we had journalists who did actual reporting like this...

Starvid,

What I can tell you is that at the moment this is nothing more than pure conjecture. The folk that know at TheOilDrum have dug out for evidence of these and Simmons's claims and there simply aren't any.

There is no evidence pointing to a casing rupture, neither I believe there is a way to know if that's the case. But even if there is a rupture, and oil is migrating into the rock formation (which btw has to be porous), for it to percolate from there to the ocean floor it would take ages...

Little is known and speculation is rife. For lean and clean information on this subject I suggest Dave Summers's blog, Bit Tooth Energy, though most of is being daily pasted at TheOilDrum.

Btw, this comment has been spreading like wildfire on the internets and is responsible for a surge in visits to TheOilDrum. It makes one wonder.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Fri Jun 18th, 2010 at 05:20:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The folk that know at TheOilDrum have dug out for evidence of these and Simmons's claims and there simply aren't any
 

They have not.  

To deal directly with Simmon's conclusions would require information they have not taken up.  

They have not weighed in on Dougr's post one way or the other.  Dougr's deductions about the state of the liner (aka casing) have been neither supported nor contradicted by the front-page posters.  

Dougr is using the same information they are using.  He is right or he is wrong, but he is working from the same data.  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Sat Jun 19th, 2010 at 11:49:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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