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The "savings glut" theory rears its ugly head again by Jerome a Paris  on October 9th, 2008
Martin Wolf is back (see this earlier article which I discussed back in June) with his theory that the imbalances that led to the current crisis were caused to a significant extent by Asia's saving glut:
Any country that receives a huge and sustained inflow of foreign lending runs the risk of a subsequent financial crisis, because external and domestic financial fragility will grow. Precisely such a crisis is now happening to the US and a number of other high-income countries including the UK. These latest crises are also related to those that preceded them - particularly the Asian crisis of 1997-98. Only after this shock did emerging economies become massive capital exporters. This pattern was reinforced by China's choice of an export-oriented development path, partly influenced by fear of what had happened to its neighbours during the Asian crisis. It was further entrenched by the recent jumps in the oil price and the consequent explosion in the current account surpluses of oil exporting countries.
While there is truth to the fact that Asian countries sought to protect themselves from capital deficits, the reason for their capital surpluses comes from our deficits, which were themselves the result of coordinated policy choices - what I have dubbed the Anglo Disease: the ideological choice to favor the income of the rich, by a combination of deregulation of corporations and finance, downwards pressure on wages, lower taxes, and the idolisation of financial investment and financial valuation of everything.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 8th, 2010 at 03:20:38 PM EST
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