An optimistic diary (for once) | 243 comments (243 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: An optimistic diary (for once) (none / 1)

"...not even the most pessimistic modelling assumptions forecast that climate change will lead to global human extinction."

By itself, climate change does not threaten human extinction. That is, we are not going to fry to death on a 200 degree earth. However, the side effects are likely to. I'm sure you're aware of that people like Frank Fenning, James Hansen, and James Lovelock, reputable and knowledgeable scientists, do discuss openly the likelihood of a massive human extinction event within the lifetimes of people alive today.

http://www.physorg.com/news196489543.html

The problem is that there is so much inertia in the systems, both political and atmospheric, that quite drastic decisions made today can only lessen the horrors of 2100.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/06/climate-change-commitment-ii/

There is an interesting point here about risk management: Is it better to tell the whole truth, and risk panic, or is it better to tread a careful line and hope to convince people to do what is needed, even after the point of no return has been reached?

by asdf on Tue Aug 24th, 2010 at 10:23:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: An optimistic diary (for once) (4.00 / 2)

Judging by earlier collapses, I think extinction is unlikely even in the case of civilization collapsing. (Unless a collapse triggers all-out nuclear war.) A collapse could kill something like 99,99% and you would still have 600 000 humans getting by somehow. Plenty enough to survive for a race of large mammals, at least 20 times as many as there are currently pandas in the world.

asdf:

There is an interesting point here about risk management: Is it better to tell the whole truth, and risk panic, or is it better to tread a careful line and hope to convince people to do what is needed, even after the point of no return has been reached?

To convince a person, you have to meet them where he or she is, not where you are. So unless you are in the privileged position to talk to humanity all at once, I do not think that really is choice.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Aug 25th, 2010 at 03:59:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

An optimistic diary (for once) | 243 comments (243 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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