General Elections in Sweden | 28 comments (28 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: General Elections in Sweden (4.00 / 2)

The Local | Alliance pulls away with a week to go: poll

For the second successive Sifo survey, which is published by the Svenska Dagbladet (SvD) daily, the Alliance claimed an absolute majority with 51.7 percent of the vote, with the centre-left trailing with 42 percent, an increase of almost 2 points.
The Alliance has Sweden's female voters to thank for the boost, SvD reported, with the centre-right enjoying the backing of 52.8 percent of the female voters, to 43.9 percent for the centre-left, a reverse of the situation in the spring.
"Generally speaking women are interested in welfare issues, but the Red-Greens have not managed to get the election campaign to be about welfare," said Toivo Sjóren at Sifo to SvD.

Here's the story in Svenska Dagbladet:

Stark ledning för alliansen
Den borgerliga alliansen leder med nästan 10 procentenheter över de rödgröna, enligt SvD/Sifos mätning en vecka före valet. Socialdemokraterna ligger kvar på en historiskt låg nivå samtidigt som Miljöpartiet också tappar stöd. Även Centern backar, medan Kristdemokraterna har en säker uppgång.

This paragraph jumped out to me (apologies for the 'Swedlish'):

Generellt brukar kvinnorna vara intresserade av välfärdsfrågorna, men de rödgröna har inte lyckats få valrörelsen att handla om välfärden. Man har tappat kvinnorna i storstäderna och genom att miljöfrågorna kommit bort har även Miljöpartiet tappat en del kvinnor på slutet, säger Toivo Sjörén, chef för Sifos opinionsmätningar.

- Generally, women are interested in the welfare issues, but the red-green has never had a campaign to be about welfare. It has lost the women in big cities and by environmental concerns have also been removed Green Party lost some men in the end, "said Toivo Sjoren, director of Sifo opinion polls.

Is this the most elementary blunder a political party can make? Did they try to 'move center' to pick-up votes shedding a greater number from their loosely attached constituency?

One other thing to note. In the US, and I'm going to assume it's the same in Sweden, hard right parties tend to poll lower than their actual vote; people don't want to 'out' themselves as a bigot. Thus, they lie to pollsters. IF this is true in Sweden, and we won't know for a week, the Sweden Democrats could pick-up as much as 2% and possibly even 3% - depending on how far Right the election swings - over their polling numbers making them A Player in forming the new government.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 12th, 2010 at 01:43:57 PM EST

Re: General Elections in Sweden (none / 1)

And now, this:

Local | Swedes' party loyalty very much in play: poll

More than one million Swedish voters may yet change their allegiance on election day, according to a new poll, signaling that the battle for control of the Riksdag is far from over.
"The election is still undecided. We're aware that many people are now entering the phase when they start to decide," prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt told the TT news agency on Saturday.

throwing up his hands

I know Swedes don't like to bluntly say "ja" or "nej" but this is getting somewhat ridiculous.

On the other hand, I could move to Sweden, start the Får Politiskt Parti (Maybe Party) and win every election from now till doomsday.

:-D

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 12th, 2010 at 02:38:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: General Elections in Sweden (4.00 / 2)

- Generally, women are interested in the welfare issues, but the red-green has never had a campaign to be about welfare. It has lost the women in big cities and by environmental concerns have also been removed Green Party lost some men in the end, "said Toivo Sjoren, director of Sifo opinion polls.

The translation is rather poor. Rather than "never had a campaign to be about welfare issues" it should read "never got the campaign [season] to focus on welfare issues," and "by environmental concerns have also been removed" should be "and as the environmental issue has receded [from public consciousness], even the Green Party has lost quite a few women lately."

One other thing to note. In the US, and I'm going to assume it's the same in Sweden, hard right parties tend to poll lower than their actual vote; people don't want to 'out' themselves as a bigot. Thus, they lie to pollsters.

This is also the case in Europe. The pollsters here know that, and correct for it by multiplying the survey response with the ratio between actual votes in the last pertinent election and survey response. So unless the proportion of people who lie about being skinhead sympathisers has increased, it shouldn't matter.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Sep 12th, 2010 at 03:39:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: General Elections in Sweden (none / 1)

In the US, and I'm going to assume it's the same in Sweden, hard right parties tend to poll lower than their actual vote; people don't want to 'out' themselves as a bigot. Thus, they lie to pollsters. IF this is true in Sweden, and we won't know for a week, the Sweden Democrats could pick-up as much as 2% and possibly even 3% - depending on how far Right the election swings - over their polling numbers making them A Player in forming the new government.

This is 100 % right.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Sun Sep 12th, 2010 at 06:16:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: General Elections in Sweden (none / 1)

The rise of the Sverigedemokraterna was a predictable phenomena. People are threatened by The Other and when immigrates comprise 12% of the population, arriving in so short a time, it strains the social fabric. Both from the existing population and from the arriving population; refugees create especially high tensions since they, most likely, didn't want to move in the first place, don't want to be were they are, and lack the psychological basis for acculturating to their new countries mores, daily life, & so on.

This is a big reason the US has had a strong, continuing, history of nativist 'Know-Nothing' streak; one we're seeing played-out with Hispanic immigration today.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 12th, 2010 at 07:22:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: General Elections in Sweden (4.00 / 4)

I agree that it was predictable, but not on the reason why.

Immigration to Sweden has been high since world war two, first refugees from the war, then (rough immigration history) finnish, yugoslavian and italians during the 50ies and 60ies to man the growing industries, chileans during the 70ies, iraqis and iranians during the 80ies, yugoslavians and somalians during the 90ies, and iraqis during the 00ies. I would say that Swedish society today is far more accepting of diversification of culture then Sweden in the 50ies (when it was apparently common behaviour to stop, stare and possibly point if a brown person walked down the street).

Sverigedemokraterna has been slowly rising since a meek start in the early 90ies. I would couple their rise with the economic policy of unemployment (standard neo-lib package) that Sweden has followed since the 90ies crises. Until 1990 Sweden had a policy of full employment, so refugees found jobs quickly and by that found a way into society. After 1990 refugees - being low on contacts - has had a hard time finding jobs and has tended to cluster even more to earlier groups of immigrants from similar culture - as there is where their only contacts are. With unemployment also among white people comes the need to blame. Accepted blaming has in particular been directed at young people (lazy) and sick people (faking), while the Sverigedemokraterna is targeting muslims (I remember when they hated black africans most of all, and arabs (as they were known then) were considered almost-european) with all the usual stereotypes.

Essentially an institutionalised unemployment is not only wasteful but also needs someone to blame, so unemployed young white males are easily steered towards blaming the foreigners. It is all about MUD:

Ruth Levitas - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

MUD (the moral underclass discourse), SID (the social integration discourse), and RED (the redistribution discourse)

This also fits neatly with why Sweden is late with this development, permanent unemployment was not established here in the early 80ies but in the early 90ies. We are ten years behind on the curve.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Sep 14th, 2010 at 04:57:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

General Elections in Sweden | 28 comments (28 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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