The value of AV is as a wedge to break the status quo. It is hoped that at some point in the next generation we could move to a more proportional system. On the other hand if AV became a new norm and there is no further movement, then the House of Commons and the political system will not be much altered.

It is hopeful that Ed Miliband has confirmed he supports AV and also did not go out of his way to attack the Lib Dems in his leader's conference speech. Perhaps he thinks that we are entering a period of coalition politics, so it is not wise to annoy any potential coalition partner.

I doubt the coalition will be brought to a premature end. It would not be in the Lib Dems interest to get a reputation as unreliable coalition partners or to annoy the Conservatives.

The Lib Dems are in the unusual position that they could easily form a coalition with either Labour or the Conservatives. Most smaller parties in most democracies are almost guaranteed allies for the largest centre-right or centre-left party. Preserving flexibility is therefore greatly to the advantage of the Lib Dems, but does mean they are not wholly predictable. This upsets people (like partisans of other parties or journalists) who would prefer a simpler political landscape.