The Sound Of History Repeating? | 27 comments (27 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: The Sound Of History Repeating? (none / 0)

Well, whether Dominique Strauss-Kahn is a "TINA guy" or not can be discussed. However, if the left wins the 2012 elections, he will have to govern with a parliament majority composed of representatives from the Parti Socialiste (including its left-wing), probably a significant number of Europe Ecologie MPs and a few from Front de Gauche. That means only a minority of the French broad left-wing MPs would be "TINA persons". Furthermore, if elected, he will most probably name Aubry Prime minister.

Oh, and the Senate will probably have a left-wing majority by then, too.

So, there is hope. But 2012 is not tomorrow, and many things may happen...

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 12:01:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Senate? (none / 0)

Have you run the numbers, Thon?
Sounds like a long shot to me.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 12:14:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate? (none / 0)

What numbers?

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 12:37:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I mean, do you have a spreadsheet... (4.00 / 2)

or something, that allows you to simulate your alleged potential left-wing majority in the Senate?

I used to follow these things closely, and they have indeed changed favourably, but I had believed that the entrenched non-proportionality in the smaller, rural departments ruled out any actual change of majority.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 12:43:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I mean, do you have a spreadsheet... (4.00 / 3)

The Senators are elected by the "grands électeurs", i.e. local elected representatives from municipalities (142 000 delegates from municipal councils), from departements) (4000 conseillers généraux), from the Regions (1870 conseillers régionaux) and by the members of parliament (577 députés)

The left won a lot of seats in the last élections municipales, cantonales (departements) and régionales, so there is a good possibility for the left to win a majority in the élections sénatoriales in 2011...

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 01:08:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I mean, do you have a spreadsheet... (4.00 / 2)

AFP: Renforcée par les régionales, la gauche vise plus que jamais le Sénat

Lors du dernier renouvellement en 2008, le Parti socialiste a néanmoins gagné 23 sièges. L'UMP, reculant de 10 sièges, a perdu la majorité absolue et doit, depuis, composer avec ses alliés centristes (29 membres) et divers droite pour faire passer les textes du gouvernement.
En 2011, le scrutin concernera 44 départements (de la série commençant par la lettre I, plus l'outre-mer) dont bon nombre urbanisés comme Paris, plus favorables à la gauche.
"Il y a en outre un fort changement sociologique parmi les maires et conseiller municipaux des campagnes : les retraités de l'enseignement ou de la fonction publiques remplacent peu à peu les ruraux", souligne un responsable du Sénat.

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 01:44:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I mean, do you have a spreadsheet... (none / 1)

The gradual rise of the left towards a Senate majority is a generally recognized trend the right has been unable to obstruct.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 02:46:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate? (none / 0)

Oh, and, please, don't call me "Thon". In French slang, un thon (a tuna fish) is a rather unattractive person... Besides, it's an endangered species... ;-)

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 01:18:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate? (none / 0)

Which is not the case of the maquereau.

(Strictly nothing to do with anyone present, obviously).

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 02:48:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate? (none / 1)

Nor the case of a mere mackerel...

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 02:57:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Sound Of History Repeating? (none / 1)

Is there any real reason to believe in significant non-PS leftwing representatives ? The only way I see it happening is if the leftwing majority margin is very small thanks to the current redistricting efforts. Any other results sounds like a PS-only majority with the current voting system...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Sep 7th, 2010 at 01:34:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Sound Of History Repeating? | 27 comments (27 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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