The Sound Of History Repeating? | 27 comments (27 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: The Sound Of History Repeating? (4.00 / 5)

Minor nitpick: the Rue89 title might be better translated as: "This no 1930s, still no cause for relief either". (just trying to do a better job than Google:)

There's a general trend in the French right to undo the so-called "Conseil National de la Résistance" program, aka "French social model" post-WWII, as already discussed here, here, here and here. But many at the UMP are afraid of ceding ground to the FN and Le Pen junior. Sarkozy has been a net positive for them so far, but he's turning more and more into a liability: the closer we get to 2012, the more interesting it will get.

Of course basing one's political power over an electoral base of 65+ (70+ in 2012) is self-defeating in the medium term: today's fifty-something are no great Sarko fans (and they see their retirement date fly further away like a mirage in the desert).

Last remark: The left wins in 2012? DSK sure looks like a TINA guy, judging by what's coming out of the IMF...

Martine Aubry (Jacques Delors' daughter) may be better, but it's hard to tell.

by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 08:31:00 AM EST

Re: The Sound Of History Repeating? (4.00 / 4)

Regarding Aubry, the Sarko camp found a way to attack her:

France24 - Socialist leader accused of hypocrisy over Roma expulsions

Martine Aubry has been vocal in her opposition to French government policy, announced at the end of July, of dismantling illegal traveller camps and "repatriating" their non-French inhabitants, mainly to Romania and Bulgaria. Both countries are members of the European Union.
...On Wednesday, right-leaning daily Le Figaro published a letter written by Aubry's lawyer on July 19 to the main court in Lille, asking for an order for police to evict forcibly a Roma encampment in the northern French city.
... Aubry hits back
Aubry was quick to defend her actions and distance the "evacuation" of the Lille camp from the government's more hard-line policy of repatriation.
..."We do not want to be complicit in repatriations," she said in a statement, with the exception of cases where there is a serious security problem with certain individuals "which is certainly not the case in this instance".
Aubry said that the administrative court at Lille had cancelled the expulsion from France of 11 people who had been arrested recently, on the grounds that "illegal occupation of land does not constitute a risk to public order".

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 09:31:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Sound Of History Repeating? (4.00 / 3)

Not Google, me ;) but it's true "rassurant" doesn't translate well. I'll correct.

I didn't broach the question of what Sarko was doing within his own camp, after succeeding in producing a monolithic right in 2007. As I suggest, the voters he won from the Front National are likely to flow back there, and then some. Meanwhile, immediately, there were stirrings from the former "centre", properly called the centre-right.

He may well cleave more than he bargained for.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 10:15:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Sarko's "monolithic right" (4.00 / 2)

is actually his inheritance from Chirac : he hijacked the monolithic party apparatus, and used it for his slow, public assassination of his boss. This is the natural order of things on the (French) right : succession by murder of the previous Caesar by the chief of the Praetorian guard.

But the "monolithic Right" is an unnatural construct, and will inevitably degenerate into (at least) two mainstream right parties. My preference is for three, as in the good old days (Legitimists, Orleanists and Bonapartists).

But in the short term, the best we can hope for is that Dominique de Villepin will manage to get his party off the ground. He's struggling against a sort of soft-totalitarian blackout in the news media, combined with the shameless buying off/ threatening off of his parliamentary backers by Sarko's political machine. If he gets off the ground, he's going to be a formidable first-round rival for Sarko.

Meanwhile, the real danger of the second generation of the Le Pen dynasty is that she may be seen as the acceptable face of (post?) fascism. And as such, she may be able to mainstream the party, and take it into coalition. Historically, the main thing that has kept the FN out is not any great quantity of moral scruples from the "centre" right, but rather J-M Le Pen's habit of keeping himself beyond the pale, by making nasty anti-semitic "slips" when things started looking too cosy.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 12:10:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sarko's "monolithic right" (4.00 / 2)

I think Sarko considerably extended and reinforced the Chirac monolithic party: pulling in the centre (minus Bayrou) and above all attracting a sizeable proportion of Front National voters. It's totally "unnatural" and requires nonstop media management to keep alive. And Sarko lost the media plot sometime earlier this year. He's trying to get it back.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 02:42:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Sound Of History Repeating? (none / 0)

Well, whether Dominique Strauss-Kahn is a "TINA guy" or not can be discussed. However, if the left wins the 2012 elections, he will have to govern with a parliament majority composed of representatives from the Parti Socialiste (including its left-wing), probably a significant number of Europe Ecologie MPs and a few from Front de Gauche. That means only a minority of the French broad left-wing MPs would be "TINA persons". Furthermore, if elected, he will most probably name Aubry Prime minister.

Oh, and the Senate will probably have a left-wing majority by then, too.

So, there is hope. But 2012 is not tomorrow, and many things may happen...

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 12:01:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Senate? (none / 0)

Have you run the numbers, Thon?
Sounds like a long shot to me.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 12:14:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate? (none / 0)

What numbers?

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 12:37:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I mean, do you have a spreadsheet... (4.00 / 2)

or something, that allows you to simulate your alleged potential left-wing majority in the Senate?

I used to follow these things closely, and they have indeed changed favourably, but I had believed that the entrenched non-proportionality in the smaller, rural departments ruled out any actual change of majority.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 12:43:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I mean, do you have a spreadsheet... (4.00 / 3)

The Senators are elected by the "grands électeurs", i.e. local elected representatives from municipalities (142 000 delegates from municipal councils), from departements) (4000 conseillers généraux), from the Regions (1870 conseillers régionaux) and by the members of parliament (577 députés)

The left won a lot of seats in the last élections municipales, cantonales (departements) and régionales, so there is a good possibility for the left to win a majority in the élections sénatoriales in 2011...

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 01:08:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I mean, do you have a spreadsheet... (4.00 / 2)

AFP: Renforcée par les régionales, la gauche vise plus que jamais le Sénat

Lors du dernier renouvellement en 2008, le Parti socialiste a néanmoins gagné 23 sièges. L'UMP, reculant de 10 sièges, a perdu la majorité absolue et doit, depuis, composer avec ses alliés centristes (29 membres) et divers droite pour faire passer les textes du gouvernement.
En 2011, le scrutin concernera 44 départements (de la série commençant par la lettre I, plus l'outre-mer) dont bon nombre urbanisés comme Paris, plus favorables à la gauche.
"Il y a en outre un fort changement sociologique parmi les maires et conseiller municipaux des campagnes : les retraités de l'enseignement ou de la fonction publiques remplacent peu à peu les ruraux", souligne un responsable du Sénat.

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 01:44:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I mean, do you have a spreadsheet... (none / 1)

The gradual rise of the left towards a Senate majority is a generally recognized trend the right has been unable to obstruct.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 02:46:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate? (none / 0)

Oh, and, please, don't call me "Thon". In French slang, un thon (a tuna fish) is a rather unattractive person... Besides, it's an endangered species... ;-)

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 01:18:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate? (none / 0)

Which is not the case of the maquereau.

(Strictly nothing to do with anyone present, obviously).

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 02:48:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate? (none / 1)

Nor the case of a mere mackerel...

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Mon Sep 6th, 2010 at 02:57:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Sound Of History Repeating? (none / 1)

Is there any real reason to believe in significant non-PS leftwing representatives ? The only way I see it happening is if the leftwing majority margin is very small thanks to the current redistricting efforts. Any other results sounds like a PS-only majority with the current voting system...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Sep 7th, 2010 at 01:34:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Sound Of History Repeating? | 27 comments (27 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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