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First of all, when you project wind incursion into the grid, you also must project what kind of grid will then exist. The various possibilities in the projected grid would have widely varying associated 'backup' costs. There are renewable based projected grids which need minimal backup costs, as the evolution of the grid itself provides it's own backup.

furthermore, there are already huge advances in technologies used to "store" windpower, such as compressed air. so predicting what future costs might be is completely dependent upon what scenario one chooses.

There are scenarios with no backup costs involved, though they may still be two decades in the future... but then that's the time frame we're investigating.

PS. In many parts of the wind world, wind incursion remains paltry. US is still 2% or so, China even less. This means the discussion of backup is premature.

the US still needs 300,000 MW to reach 20%, so let's keep the horse in front of the cart. Let's not forget that the "backup" issue is one created by those conventional players with the most to lose.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sat Jan 29th, 2011 at 02:28:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Timehorizons are, however, important.
The french drive for nuclear and the danish drive for wind were preticipated by the same event - the 1970's oil crisis, and the net result of those policies was the near total decarbonization of french electricity in not much over 15 years, while after forty years Denmark still has among the highest emissions per KWH hour in the EU. And the projections for the carbon intensity, and price, of danish electricity in 2026 are still much, much worse than the present situation in France - For emissions, by a factor of at least 5.

Insisting that renewables are the answer means that we are choosing to use coal and gas in the decades it will take to mature those technologies, and the compounded carbon in the atmosphere from those decades of buisness as usual will stay there for centuries to millenia - this is not being green, it is, quite simply, a crime against the planet.

We know what it takes to kick the coal habit - and it is imperative that we use those tools, even if they are not the most politically popular at the moment.

Just to put the boot in, I am going to point out that the very same advanced grid and storage technologies that would also serve admirably to make nuclear power both more economical and more enviormentially friendly by fitting the infamous baseload supply curve that is economically optimal for nuclear to the actual demandcurve without the use of fossile based middle and peak producing powerplant. In fact, developments along these lines help nuclear far more than they do wind, because the total amount of MWH that a nuke based grid needs to store or otherwise shift in time is both smaller and a fixed quantity, which helps a lot with the economics.

by Thomas on Sat Jan 29th, 2011 at 03:57:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thomas:
while after forty years Denmark still has among the highest emissions per KWH hour in the EU.

That's as may be, but a great deal of Danish wind power is actually exported, and reduces carbon fuel consumption and emissions elsewhere.

It also thereby reduces the profits of carbon-fired generators of course which accounts for some of the misleading propaganda.

Proponents of nuclear have no such excuses.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jan 29th, 2011 at 05:20:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All those points were addressed by Thomas at the top of a different subthread.

ChrisCook:

a great deal of Danish wind power is actually exported, and reduces carbon fuel consumption and emissions elsewhere.
Thomas:
It is exported.. primarily to Norway and Sweden, neither of which have any significant amount of carbon emitting generation capacity at all.  Net ecological  gain: Zero. Net economic cost to Denmark of using nordic hydro to loadbalance our wind capacity? Quite large. Danish wind electricity importsexports are mostly used to conserve waterhead behind dams in Norway and Sweden - this reserve of power is then exported back to us when wind is low at a much higher price. Which means two things - that the actual percentage of wind in the danish power mix is in fact rather higher than export statistics indicate, and that the price of this electricity, including storage outside our borders, is much higher than we admit.
ChrisCook:
It also thereby reduces the profits of carbon-fired generators of course which accounts for some of the misleading propaganda.

Proponents of nuclear have no such excuses.

Thomas:
French power exports, which are typically a heck of a lot larger, go to countries that do use coal. Net ecological gain: Large.


Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 3rd, 2011 at 04:07:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You continue to argue from false perspectives, failing to see the whole picture, the context.

Decarbonization, for example, is but one component of the energy picture, which must be analyzed over the entire supply chain and over the entire life cycle.

Further, several key renewable technologies are already mature, or are on the cusp, and wind has been mature for longer than the Danish governments have withdrawn support.

PS. agendas don't wear boots unless they can't stand up on their own merits.


"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sun Jan 30th, 2011 at 03:21:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Eh? The lifecycle footprint per kwh of nuclear is comparable or lower than that of wind, with the winner depending on the exact details of any given project.
It is much lower than that of solar.

I am quite aware that decarbonizing electricity is not sufficient, but it is nessesary. If we do not have clean electricity, the electric car merely moves pollution from tailpipe to smokestack. If we do not have clean electricity, highspeed rail becomes a carbon hog. If we do not have clean electricity replacing fossile carbon industrial feedstocks with electrochemical processes is pointless, if we do not have clean electricity, cleaning up home heating is not possible. Virtually every single other ecologically friendly policy or technological solution rests on a unspoken base assumption that electricity production is clean, so making this assumption true as rapidly as possible takes priority over everything else. It is also important to keep in mind that while a lot of these policies will dramatically reduce overall energy use, by virtue of being far more efficient than current praxis, since they all amount to substitution of electrons for gas and oil, they greatly increase electricity demand, so our policy must accomodate this.

by Thomas on Sun Jan 30th, 2011 at 04:21:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If we believe ExxonMobil to choose nuclear over wind is to choose a more costly technology. I fail to see how that would increase the speed of getting rid of coal and oil.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Wed Feb 2nd, 2011 at 03:05:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
in 2025.The entire point is that by that date we should be finishing the paintjobs on the last bits of our carbonfree generation capacity, not just commencing construction. Also. not counting backup and storage, which are factors that do absolutely horrible things to both the economic and green credentials of wind. (most wind is backed up by gas. This is not a climate friendly policy)

I must be failing to communicate how very urgent I feel this problem is. I am not advocating that we should maybe build one or two more nukeplants. I am advocating that we should send construction crews to every major coalfired powerstation on the planet, build reactors next to them, (fast, thorium and conventional all, as supply chain allows) appropriating the grid connections and cooling water, and celebrate criticality at each new reactor by blowing the fracking coal station to kingdom come

by Thomas on Wed Feb 2nd, 2011 at 07:28:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thomas:
2025.The entire point is that by that date we should be finishing the paintjobs on the last bits of our carbonfree generation capacity, not just commencing construction.
So we should be commencing construction of the carbon-free generation capacity now. The political reality is that we have a bunch of morons in charge who think a massive investment in carbon-free generating capacity would be inflationary and we cannot have that because we're not in a debt deflation environment.

In addition, the same people will say that because of the economic crisis we can't afford to internalise the costs of fossil fuels.

Whether that is just successful policy capture by vested interests in the fossil fools industry or just economic obduracy by politicians, I cannot say. At the very least it is likely that the idiots in charge are easy prey for the skilled lobbyists of the incumbent fossil fool industry.

I find it extremely unfortunate that nuclear and wind advocates snipe at each other rather than making a common front against coal and gas, which both say at every turn is the real enemy. That's also a political reality.

Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 3rd, 2011 at 03:58:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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