Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
First, let me give the 'background' to my thinking.  (lucky you!)

I'm going to assume you know nothing of Dynamic Logic, usually a safe assumption :-), so you can skip the next bit if you do.


Is a first order, or generation, derivation from the axioms of Dynamic Logic.  What this means is:

if it is possible to bring about p by performing a sufficiently often, then either p is true now or it is possible to perform  a repeatedly to bring about a situation where p is (still) false but one more performance of  a could bring about p.

This is the logic ("argumentive structure or form") by which one can validly include bifurcation in an argument without completely losing Categorical Logic - including Set Theory¹, considered broadly.


... bifurcation occurs when a small smooth change made to the parameter values (the bifurcation parameters) of a system causes a sudden 'qualitative' or topological change in its behavior.

I state a Fitness Landscape exhibiting Self-Organized Criticality is such a system. I further state the "bifurcation parameters" include the affect of the Agents (here defined as "purposeful Actors") on the Fitness Landscape.  Lastly, the most successful Actors on a Fitness Landscape achieve their success by exploiting, however defined, the Properties and Attributes of the Fitness Landscape in which they evolved; this implies a necessary high degree of dependence on those Properties and Attributes for the continued existence of those Agents².

Certain Agents, at different times, because of their combinatorial 'position' within Agentive interactions within the Fitness Landscape, become a "Critical Agent" and what they do or what happens to them can cause a bifurcation of the Fitness Landscape.  (!)  When that happens Everything You Know Is Wrong,  highly successful Agents become highly unfit, the Complex System simplifies, and 'things go to hell in a handbasket.'

What this means, if you will ...

Greece, considered from 1971 - 2008 (Fall of the Breton Woods System to the onset of the current economic crisis,) is hugely unimportant.  It has become vitally important due to everybody concluding it is vitally important and, thus, it has become a Critical Agent, as defined above.  

Greece's Critical Agency within the global Fitness Landscape is occurring simultaneously with:

  1.  Peak Oil

  2.  Peak Water

  3.  Peak Food

  4.  GW induced Global Weather Pattern shifts

  5.  Global Financial Crisis

  6.  Increasing internal political conflicts

  7.  Global Real Estate price collapse

  8.  Human overpopulation wrt planetary resources

& etc., usw.

All of which a affective on the Properties and Attributes of the global Fitness Landscape.  

And in my estimation: We're moving toward a different Fitness Landscape.  Whether we are in the beginning or middle or even at the end of the move is unknown.  (Ask me again in 2030, if I should live so long.)  

In my eyes the importance of Greece is it gives us a clear insight into the thinking of the global Decision Makers, and their staffs and allies, wrt how they think about, thus how they respond, to the situation.  

So far they are responding by attempting to sustain the highly successful Agents from the previous Fitness Landscape.  

Needless to say, in my considered opinion, that's not going to succeed.

What their attempts will do, IMO, is squander time, money, and their Political Power making them ever more irrelevant when it comes to being able to affect and/or control events.  For example, we've already seen political figures in various nations, including the US btw, losing Command and Control of their police and/or military.  What was unthinkable one year ago, is now fact: political leaders can no longer assume they can impose their will.  A fruit seller burns himself to death in protest over local thuggery and the Tunisian, Egyptian, and Libyan governments are overthrown by popular uprisings.

Global financial powers are finding limitations too.  I present the Curious Case of Iceland:

GFP:  Don't default or BAD THINGS will happen

Iceland:  Fuck off.  <defaults>

GFP:  crickets

And it's time to wrap this up.

I haven't, exactly, answered or addressed your post but I've tried to give you some "channel markers" of an analytical stance I find compelling.  And - gadzooks - even useful.  

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¹  Thus "saving" Mathematics and simultaneously allowing me to deploy the findings of Mathematics without having to "Do" Math

²  N.b. all of these statements can be justified

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Oct 28th, 2011 at 03:23:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He! I was going to ask what happened when a Fitness Landscape turns out to be an Incompetence Landscape, but I see that that eventuality is covered! Objection withdrawn.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 28th, 2011 at 11:57:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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