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I even think the US did that in the 80ies, with the savings and loans crash. But I know less about that. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
My fear is more that the process will be subverted politically and that wealthy malefactors will get to keep their money and power more than that it will be impossible to resolve a "TBTF". If you don't want to do something it is always nice if it is impossible.
But, even if a resolution fails and the whole system crashes, I believe that would be better than continuing as we are going. The longer this runs the greater the damage. And no real recovery is possible until the current bad debt is written down, and, probably, until the current financial incumbents are removed from power.
The only reason for temporizing is to spread awareness of the nature of the existing system and the need for fundamental change. The occupy movement is doing that and I suspect that the current effort to wall paper the Euro elephant will fail massively the first time the elephant moves -- which will be soon. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
Bankruptcy means unable to pay one's bills, and writing down loans (assets) in most cases also means writing down liabilities (the loans banks themselves take out from others to leverage their own capital while making loans to others). So profitability would be reduced and in many cases losses would also be experienced by shareholders of banks, but bankruptcy would only occur in some cases. Even in those cases, however, as the US TARP program showed, it is both easy and relatively costless to prevent those banks from failing if they are deemed too large to be allowed to do so. Central banks, as lenders of last resort, can just print money, for free, and lend it to banks for the purpose of just keeping capital high enough on balance sheets to stay in business while the bank raises its own capital through retained earnings and other investments. As long as the money isn't lent, it cannot produce inflation, so it is essentially just a waiver from the government which allows banks to continue operating outside of normal regulatory or best practice standards.
Why do things seem to work differently for banks than for other businesses? Because banks aren't in the business of making any real things, just arranging social commitments between people. They are in the same business that government is -- organizing people to do things in common projects. Just like in government, it really doesn't matter if banks run profits or deficits if their stakeholders are willing to let it pass -- willing to let some of their own commitments be relaxed and worked out later.
Bankruptcy means unable to pay one's bills, and writing down loans (assets) in most cases also means writing down liabilities
That is a bold assertion. Are you really sure most of the loans due to be written off contain an automatic put option in their refinancing?
In any event, writing off a loan means that someone, somewhere will not have the money he thought he had. That buck can stop in four places: With the government, with the private bondholders, with the private shareholders, or with the depositors of depository institutions.
The FDIC means that the first and last options are essentially equivalent. So the question is whether the government wants to make good on the claims of shareholders and bondholders to insolvent institutions, or not.
I vote for "not," and if that causes bank runs, well then there's nothing wrong with a bank run that won't be solved by confiscating the bank, decapitating its management (metaphorically or literally, depending on whether it's done by the government or an angry mob), and repudiating every liability not held by an industrial firm or as an insured deposit.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
our consumption and investment behavior is largely immune to the effects of another bank meltdown.
Ah.
As optimistic about the effects of Capitalism as ever.
And given the present decrepit state of the infrastructure of nominally first-world countries, you would run out of unemployed before you ran out of useful government projects. Possibly quite a long time before, depending on how aggressively you repudiate private sector debts.
If you have a Treasury with a drawer full of shovel-ready, useful infrastructure projects, then the Treasury can shoot the private banking sector in the back of the head, dump the corpse in a shallow grave and nothing excessively bad will happen (except maybe a coup d'etat), irrespective of where you are in the business cycle.
Because with sufficiently activist fiscal policy, you get to abolish the business cycle.
We need a banking system so that the fiscal authority can concentrate their attention on those tasks that a banking system cannot or should not be doing. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
Not that you would want to do it unless your banks needed a lead pill delivered intercranially for other reasons.
Obviously we could shoot all the TBTF banks in the back of the head, and so long as we did it by taking them into receivership long enough for people to shift their accounts to small community banks and credit unions, there wouldn't be any massive calamity in the short term, and in the long term we'd be better off.
But shooting the entire private banking sector in the back of the head and having to recreate the entire sector from scratch ~ that seems likely to deepen the current depression. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
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