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If dissatisfaction with PP over the next few years leads to some splintering off to right wing parties, would that lead to some differences in detail but not much difference in broad measure?

While the difference in broad measure would be if an economically sane centrist seeming party could wedge some substantial portion of their vote away?

If SPOE gets 31% of deputies from 28% of the vote while IU-LV gets 3% of deputies from 6% of the vote, it would seem the general challenge for a third party is getting up to the level of support where the threshold effects are not killing their proportional representation. That is, the impact of anyone by PSOE wedging away 10% of PP's vote (4% of electorate) would be substantially watered down by threshold effects unless they were mostly going to the same place and that same party was also picking up voters from elsewhere.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 08:00:52 PM EST
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