Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
So. I hope Migeru confirms the numbers. But if everything holds, we are going to see a 68-69% participation election. We know from polls that almost all people sitting out are PSOE voters.

This means 3-4% less votes than in 2008. In 2008 PSOE got 11.2 million votes. So, we are talking here a baseline of 10 million votes.

PP voters will be back at the polls, with some increase from marginal voters and "I-vote-winners" voters. We are talking about 10.5 million.

So, we have 10.5 million for PP and 10 for PSOE. There will be some transfer to IU and Equo. So PSOE can end up with 9 million. If all of them end up in IU or EQuo hands, it depends on the distribution of those votes.

Given that the total number votes is going to be around 25 million, we are taling here about a PSOE loss of around 6-8%: less than the polls predicted but just around absolute majority. it depends on the distribution of the transfer from PSOE to other left-wing parties.

However, a relatively small number of transfers votes from PSOE directly to PP (a quarter millione would be enough) and marginal seats end up with PP winning in a landslide.

All in all, what I mean is, if PSOE voters do not vote for PP, then PP win is going to be large but not landslide.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 10:18:39 AM EST

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