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well participation at 18:00h is 57.5%. We will see a 4% drop in participation at the end of the day. All of them PSOE voters. this is 1.2 million votes.

This means the ceiling for PSOE voters is going to be 10 million votes. PP has 10.5 votes guaranteed.  PP is going to win.

The question is by how much.

In order to reproduce the results from the polls, roughly one million PSOE voters should move to PP and another million to other left-wing parties. This would confirm the 11.5 million for PP, 8 million for PSOE (a 14% difference).

Is this really possible? Well, we will see, but I would bet that PP difference does not reach 10 points. Anybody wants to bet?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 12:32:34 PM EST

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