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Ok gossip.. pure gossip but for what is worth. Poll

180 PP
120 PSOE
15 CiU
10 IU
5 PNV
5 Left-basque

With nobody else breaking the 5 threshold and a lot of small parties with chances to get one-three seats.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 01:45:25 PM EST
"The 5 threshold" is the number of seats needed to form your own parliamentary group.

A 3% vote threshold operates at the constituency level for seat apportionment. This is really only operative in the larger constituencies such as Madrid and Barcelona, where over 30 seats are elected.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 01:47:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The gossip surrounding a left-wing basque group is so loud that it seems a fact.

It is called Amaiur.. and we should have added it. Participation in Basque country is higher than in the previous election. The only area where this happens.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 01:55:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Participation increased with respect to 2009 in the Basque Country, and dropped in all the other regions.

This is presumably the result of abstentions or null votes becoming valid Amaiur votes.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 02:06:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Absolutely

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 02:11:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I should note it was a horrible rainy day in Madrid and I believe there were storms on the Mediterranean coast. That tends to act as a deterrent to voter participation.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 01:48:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is it correct to state the seats being lost by PSOE are the "back-benchers" and the party leadership will retain theirs?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 01:50:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Absolutely.

All the leaders get seats.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 01:53:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DAMN it!!!

If the leaders had been thrown out they would have paid the price for their policies.  As it is, they won't and have no incentive too.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 02:12:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There will presumably be a PSOE party congress and an overhaul of the leadership. However, the presumptive frontrunner in a congress after a Rubalcaba rout is Carme Chacón, currently a minister.

Stalking horses might be people like Eduardo Madina, a young Basque socialist who hasn't been in government yet.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 02:15:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is a closed-party-list system. The battle to get a "safe" position in a constituency list happens within the party.

A lot of dissident backbenchers knew back in September during the constitutional reform debacle that they would not repeat. Some people in the party leadership, or in the cabinet, had decided not to run for a seat again.

Zapatero is not running for a seat. The party's organization secretary, Jose Blanco, is. Rubalcaba, the leading candidate, will run for Madrid, but he holds no party or government positions so he doesn't have a position to resign after losing big tonight.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 01:56:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The gossip is official. I took the lower PP numbers, pol says that it could reach 185 seats.. but I do not buy it with this participation.

A pleasure


I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 02:04:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They say it is going to be a difference between 10 and 15 points... but I can not see how they are going to get this huge difference. Polls claim that IU is going to get a lot of votes , but still.

I still defend 180 PP and 9-10 points...

I take bets.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 02:11:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do you accept peseta?

(We've got some lying around.)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 02:17:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They can be traded for Euros at the Bank of Spain...

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 02:18:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I accept pesetas... for sure.

PP below 181...

It is a very good bet... 20 duros?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 02:21:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Un café...

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 02:31:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Done.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 02:32:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's a mil pesetas note worth in real money?

(Also got three Canadian dollars, some Greek drachmas, about fifteen Deutsche marks, some Danish kroner, Irish punts, two Brit pound notes, a King Georgie the Second shilling, and a well used bronze piece from the Roman Emperor Constantine, if you wish to "open your options.")

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 02:53:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
6 euros.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 02:54:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bet is too rich for my blood, then.

(Yes, I AM a cheapskate.)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 03:13:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The RTVE poll appears to give 6/7 to Amaiur and 4/5 to the PNV so one of two interesting things might happen...

There could be two Basque Nationalist groups, a right wing nationalist and a left wing independentist.

Or the left independentists might take away the single Basque Group from the traditional PNV.

In any case, Amaiur would be bigger than the PNV according to the poll.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 02:17:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In a couple of months Amaiur beats PNV.. huge chances it is going to be the main force in basque politics for years to come ahead of PSOE, PNV and PP.

This is the first surprise of the night.. if it is confirmed.. but the gossip is very loud. They take it as a given.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 02:23:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is this related to the end of ETA?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 02:56:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Very.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 03:01:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Imagine the fun of having a PP government in Madrid and Amaiur in the Basque county!

Amaiur is the largest group right now in the results from PV.

I imagine that they will long for Ibarratxe.

And look at Catalunya and Andalucia.  Spain is becoming a normal post-modern european country where identity politics are the rule.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Nov 20th, 2011 at 03:30:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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