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As a consequence any country's request to proceed according to the weaker deficit rules of the European treaty would mean that the stricter rules according to the intergovernmental treaty cannot be applied.

I frankly don't see things getting even that far. Multiple national constitutional courts are going to rubbish this in the constitutional-suit-equivalent of a New York minute either on sovereignty grounds or lack of democratic legitimation.

Or maybe both.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt št gmail dotcom) on Tue Dec 13th, 2011 at 05:07:09 AM EST
Well, the Commission presumably has to look at that aspect. But I agree with you.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Dec 13th, 2011 at 05:08:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure the Commission will even get a look-in, as I imagine the opponents will start seeking relief from the national constitutional courts as soon as the parliaments enact this, um, can we call it a treaty-default swap?


The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt št gmail dotcom) on Tue Dec 13th, 2011 at 05:21:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can we short it?
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Dec 13th, 2011 at 05:23:29 AM EST
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I'm not sure I understand what the problem is. EU institutions already play a key role in enforcing Eurozone and Schengen rules even though they don't apply to all. The UK also got an opt-out on Lisbon in relation to the Charter of human rights.  Does this invalidate the role of the ECB or European Court in relation to the others?

On the other hand, if the UK really got obstructive about this, what is to prevent the EU26 from "downsizing" the current Commission to one room in the Berlaymont and creating a new one for the EU26? (The UK should be happy that all that bureaucracy and administrative red tape as been demolished).  Effectively the UK would be sidelined.

My greater concern about an "inter-governmental" Treaty is not that it has any lesser force than an EU Treaty - the EU treaties are also inter-Governmental in Nature.  The problem is that such a Treaty would further undermine existing EU institutions in favour of an intergovernmental Troika effectively led by Germany France, and the ECB.

And whatever about the UK being sidelined if it doesn't play ball, a small debtor country like Ireland doesn't have a chance of influencing outcomes in the new arrangement.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Dec 13th, 2011 at 06:01:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If you don't see a problem in 26 of the 27 scrapping the current Commission to build a new one against Britain's veto, then I guess you're right, there's no real problem! ;)

I think the point is that this "compact" is being hyped up as a binding treaty to impress the markets (as if), when in fact it never looked like being a full 27-country Lisbon revision, and will not even be a 26-country "treaty" (too much ratification and referendum-type hassle). It will be, at most, an inter-governmental agreement that the Commission is supposed to police (some hope, as the Commission is apparently muttering) and the ECJ rule on (no hope).

So it looks like a turkey for Christmas, but start plucking it and it turns out to be dead crow.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Dec 13th, 2011 at 09:59:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If, as seems likely, the Attorney General rules that a Referendum is needed to ratify the "compact" in Ireland - ironically, partly because it is not ceding power to the EU, but to a new 26 country entity - and that the referendum is defeated, as seems even more likely, then the markets are going to be even more impressed. Sarkozy's re-election hopes will be in deep DoDo and Merkel will be a dead woman walking because the exercise of democracy has a way of doing that to ill thought out schemes.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Dec 13th, 2011 at 10:12:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
@economistmeg
Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein calling for Irish referendum on fiscal compact. Even if referendum isn't legally required, politics may require it



tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 13th, 2011 at 11:50:52 AM EST
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I wouldn't be over impressed by opposition parties doing what they are supposed to do - oppose - and positioning themselves "on the side of the people". Referendums in Ireland are called when a constitutional change is deemed necessary to ratify a Treaty. There is never a political reason for calling one, it is always a legal one. It would be an abdication of Government responsibility to call a referendum when none is legally required - but that doesn't prevent the opposition from trying to claim the Government is running away from the people.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Dec 13th, 2011 at 12:20:08 PM EST
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