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Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
Belgium has sworn in a new government, ending a record-breaking 541 days of political deadlock. New Prime Minister Elio Di Rupo was sworn in by King Albert II at the royal palace along with his 12 cabinet ministers and six secretaries of state. Mr Di Rupo, a French-speaking Socialist, took the oath of office in French, Dutch and German - reflecting language sensitivities in the country. The Europe crisis is thought to have spurred politicians to find a solution.
Belgium has sworn in a new government, ending a record-breaking 541 days of political deadlock.
New Prime Minister Elio Di Rupo was sworn in by King Albert II at the royal palace along with his 12 cabinet ministers and six secretaries of state.
Mr Di Rupo, a French-speaking Socialist, took the oath of office in French, Dutch and German - reflecting language sensitivities in the country.
The Europe crisis is thought to have spurred politicians to find a solution.
France and Germany have reaffirmed their commitment to reform the eurozone, after ratings agency Standard and Poor's put most of the zone on "credit watch" over debt crisis fears. The two countries said proposals for a treaty change agreed on Monday would reinforce governance of the eurozone. They said their priority was to press ahead with the proposals. S&P's move means six countries with top AAA ratings would have a 50% chance of seeing their ratings downgraded.
France and Germany have reaffirmed their commitment to reform the eurozone, after ratings agency Standard and Poor's put most of the zone on "credit watch" over debt crisis fears.
The two countries said proposals for a treaty change agreed on Monday would reinforce governance of the eurozone.
They said their priority was to press ahead with the proposals.
S&P's move means six countries with top AAA ratings would have a 50% chance of seeing their ratings downgraded.
The Government faced calls today from both Tory and Labour MPs to reform Britain's secretive lobbying system in the wake of revelations in The Independent. This morning we published details of how Bell Pottinger boasted about its access to the heart of Government to journalists posing as potential clients. The revelations have increased pressure for the Government to introduce a statutory register of lobbyists. Conservative backbencher Jesse Norman said that the latest disclosures reaffirmed his view that lobbying was a "canker on the body politic".
The Government faced calls today from both Tory and Labour MPs to reform Britain's secretive lobbying system in the wake of revelations in The Independent.
This morning we published details of how Bell Pottinger boasted about its access to the heart of Government to journalists posing as potential clients.
The revelations have increased pressure for the Government to introduce a statutory register of lobbyists.
Conservative backbencher Jesse Norman said that the latest disclosures reaffirmed his view that lobbying was a "canker on the body politic".
then when the dust has died down they can go back to normal, trebles all round keep to the Fen Causeway
David Cameron warned tonight that he will block plans for a new EU Treaty unless European leaders agree to a list of British demands. The Prime Minister insisted that if eurozone countries want to use the "institutions of Europe" to rescue the single currency, they will have to back a number of "British safeguards" in return.French president Nicolas Sarkozy and German chancellor Angela Merkel renewed calls for reform of the treaty after emergency talks in Paris yesterday.The aim would be to allow far tougher rules and sanctions governing the eurozone in future to reassure markets about the euro's long-term stability.
David Cameron warned tonight that he will block plans for a new EU Treaty unless European leaders agree to a list of British demands.
The Prime Minister insisted that if eurozone countries want to use the "institutions of Europe" to rescue the single currency, they will have to back a number of "British safeguards" in return.
French president Nicolas Sarkozy and German chancellor Angela Merkel renewed calls for reform of the treaty after emergency talks in Paris yesterday.
The aim would be to allow far tougher rules and sanctions governing the eurozone in future to reassure markets about the euro's long-term stability.
The correct response to that threat includes the phrase "... and the horse you rode in on". It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
So here is the euro plan. It's EFSF RIP.... Instead it's over to fast tracked ESM, European STability Mechanism in mid 2012...2. Presuming Treaty changes get passed through by March 2012. Then the ESM will be allowed to act as a bank...3. And if Treaty passed, the ECB will consider the fiscal compact met, and be willing to effectively leverage the ESM. Hey presto. Bazooka.4. Problems: Ireland referendum, and I suppose Denmark. Brussels invoking various protocols and articles to get round need for referenda5. The ESM vote in the Bundestag is going to be a helluva ride. That will be off the fence time for Germany. Could topple government.Yes, as @MattTempest reminded me it's protocol 12 that Brussels is looking at. And, I'm told article 126 and article 136 of the Treaty
2. Presuming Treaty changes get passed through by March 2012. Then the ESM will be allowed to act as a bank...
3. And if Treaty passed, the ECB will consider the fiscal compact met, and be willing to effectively leverage the ESM. Hey presto. Bazooka.
4. Problems: Ireland referendum, and I suppose Denmark. Brussels invoking various protocols and articles to get round need for referenda
5. The ESM vote in the Bundestag is going to be a helluva ride. That will be off the fence time for Germany. Could topple government.
Yes, as @MattTempest reminded me it's protocol 12 that Brussels is looking at. And, I'm told article 126 and article 136 of the Treaty
Demonstrators trying to hold a second day of protests against vote fraud in Russia's parliamentary elections have clashed with police in Moscow. Hundreds of officers blocked off Triumphal Square, then began chasing about 100 demonstrators, seizing some and throwing them into police vehicles.Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's United Russia party saw a significant drop in support in Sunday's election but it will still have a majority in parliament. Opponents say even that watered-down victory was due to massive vote fraud.
Demonstrators trying to hold a second day of protests against vote fraud in Russia's parliamentary elections have clashed with police in Moscow.
Hundreds of officers blocked off Triumphal Square, then began chasing about 100 demonstrators, seizing some and throwing them into police vehicles.
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's United Russia party saw a significant drop in support in Sunday's election but it will still have a majority in parliament. Opponents say even that watered-down victory was due to massive vote fraud.
Britain faces years of public disorder fuelled by the economic crisis, with police battling to keep control of the streets, a former Scotland Yard chief has warned.Lord Stevens made his warning at the launch of an independent commission into the future of policing, which has been set up by Labour as it tries to outflank the government on law and order.Labour says the Tory-led government rebuffed its calls for a royal commission into policing, so it effectively set up its own.Stevens, the last commissioner of the Metropolitan police to complete his term in office, warned the government not to be "insulting" or "arrogant" in dismissing the work of the panel of academics and former police chiefs that he will chair.
Britain faces years of public disorder fuelled by the economic crisis, with police battling to keep control of the streets, a former Scotland Yard chief has warned.
Lord Stevens made his warning at the launch of an independent commission into the future of policing, which has been set up by Labour as it tries to outflank the government on law and order.
Labour says the Tory-led government rebuffed its calls for a royal commission into policing, so it effectively set up its own.
Stevens, the last commissioner of the Metropolitan police to complete his term in office, warned the government not to be "insulting" or "arrogant" in dismissing the work of the panel of academics and former police chiefs that he will chair.
The European commission could be empowered to impose austerity measures on eurozone countries that are being bailed out, usurping the functions of government in countries such as Greece, Ireland, or Portugal.Bailed-out countries could also be stripped of their voting rights in the European Union, under radical proposals that have been circulating at the highest level in Brussels before this week's crucial EU summit on the sovereign debt crisis.A confidential paper for EU leaders by the EU council president, Herman Van Rompuy, who will chair the summit on Thursday and Friday, said eurobonds or the pooling of eurozone debt would be a powerful tool in resolving the crisis, despite fierce German resistance to the idea.It called for "more intrusive control of national budgetary policies by the EU" and laid out various options for enforcing fiscal discipline supra-nationally.
The European commission could be empowered to impose austerity measures on eurozone countries that are being bailed out, usurping the functions of government in countries such as Greece, Ireland, or Portugal.
Bailed-out countries could also be stripped of their voting rights in the European Union, under radical proposals that have been circulating at the highest level in Brussels before this week's crucial EU summit on the sovereign debt crisis.
A confidential paper for EU leaders by the EU council president, Herman Van Rompuy, who will chair the summit on Thursday and Friday, said eurobonds or the pooling of eurozone debt would be a powerful tool in resolving the crisis, despite fierce German resistance to the idea.
It called for "more intrusive control of national budgetary policies by the EU" and laid out various options for enforcing fiscal discipline supra-nationally.
So they swap economic instability for political instability, while letting the most toxic forms of nationalism out of the box. The stupity is breathtaking.
The Government's promise to reverse the erosion of civil liberties and roll back state intrusion has been "unfulfilled, if not abandoned altogether", experts say. Despite the Government's initial commitments, in reality their changes "have resulted in the police having greater, often summary and arbitrary powers over the individual and less accountability for their actions", the criminal justice experts warned. And bringing in directly elected police and crime commissioners (PCCs) to replace police authorities from next year could lead to a "passing of the buck" between the commissioners and chief constables when concerns arise, they added. Writing in Criminal Justice Matters, guest editors professors Lee Bridges and Ed Cape said: "It's as if the Government's commitment to 'fundamental human freedoms' is one that implies its own freedom from due process and the rule of law."
The Government's promise to reverse the erosion of civil liberties and roll back state intrusion has been "unfulfilled, if not abandoned altogether", experts say.
Despite the Government's initial commitments, in reality their changes "have resulted in the police having greater, often summary and arbitrary powers over the individual and less accountability for their actions", the criminal justice experts warned.
And bringing in directly elected police and crime commissioners (PCCs) to replace police authorities from next year could lead to a "passing of the buck" between the commissioners and chief constables when concerns arise, they added.
Writing in Criminal Justice Matters, guest editors professors Lee Bridges and Ed Cape said: "It's as if the Government's commitment to 'fundamental human freedoms' is one that implies its own freedom from due process and the rule of law."
Eurozone officials are currently discussing plans to double the firepower of the rescue umbrella by allowing the EFSF and ESM to run concurrently; Herman van Rompuy wants to restrain the treaty amendments to a simple change in the Protocol 12 on excessive deficits; he hopes that this would allow a fast-track procedure that would not require a convention or national ratification processes; but the strategy raises complex legal issues, and it seems that only a small subset of Angela Merkel's and Nicolas Sarkozy's proposal can be squeezed into such a procedure; Britain asks for an end to QMV on financial services as a quid-pro-quo for its acceptance of a treaty change, but the German government may not accept this deal; S&P has now threatened to downgrade the EFSF, after attaching a negative outlook to the six AAA-rated eurozone members, as well as the rest of the eurozone; Norbert Gaillard believes that the S&P downgrade threat will ultimately make Germany more co-operative; Fabrizio Saccomani hints at ECB action to counter the liquidity crisis;he also says that credit conditions in Italy might deteriorate, but this would stop short of a credit crunch; the Greek parliament approves the 2012 budget; Francois Fillon rules out yet another austerity plan;FT Deutschland says that Jens Weidmann is going to play a critical role in the next few days in shaping the ECB's response to the crisis; the SPD party congress settles for a moderate set of policies, but raises doubts about Peer Steinbrück's chances to become Merkel's challenger; Bild provides a comprehensive list of anti-German outbursts in the European media; Martin Wolf, meanwhile, says a fiscal package cannot solve a current account crisis.
allowing the EFSF and ESM to run concurrently
Or even better : privatize them so that they can compete with each other. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
NEW YORK - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc on Tuesday won court approval for its reorganization plan, allowing it to end the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history and a major trigger of the 2008 global financial crisis. The approval was granted by U.S. Bankruptcy Judge James Peck at a hearing in Manhattan. Lehman expects to begin payouts of an estimated $65 billion to creditors early next year. Once the fourth-largest U.S. investment bank, Lehman is now a shell of its former self, having sold or closed many of its operations. Peck said Lehman may now proceed with its plan to wind down its remaining operations.
NEW YORK - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc on Tuesday won court approval for its reorganization plan, allowing it to end the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history and a major trigger of the 2008 global financial crisis.
The approval was granted by U.S. Bankruptcy Judge James Peck at a hearing in Manhattan. Lehman expects to begin payouts of an estimated $65 billion to creditors early next year.
Once the fourth-largest U.S. investment bank, Lehman is now a shell of its former self, having sold or closed many of its operations. Peck said Lehman may now proceed with its plan to wind down its remaining operations.
It's the time of year when children begin to hope for a flurry of snowflakes to add a festive backdrop to the Christmas build-up - and judging by this morning's grim news from retailers, they'll be pleased that temperatures have started to plummet too. But Steve Nickell, of the Office for Budget Responsibility, has suggested someone else who should be praying for a White Christmas: George Osborne.Appearing before MPs on the Treasury select committee, Nickell pointed out that heavy snowfall at the end of the year - following last year's pattern - could mean a sharp downturn in GDP, followed by an automatic bounce-back as activity returns to normal in the new year.The OBR, which announced its forecasts alongside the chancellor's autumn statement last week, is now predicting that growth will be broadly flat between now and next autumn. But with the eurozone crisis hammering confidence, negative growth (as economists oxymoronically call it) looks increasingly likely for October to December.
It's the time of year when children begin to hope for a flurry of snowflakes to add a festive backdrop to the Christmas build-up - and judging by this morning's grim news from retailers, they'll be pleased that temperatures have started to plummet too. But Steve Nickell, of the Office for Budget Responsibility, has suggested someone else who should be praying for a White Christmas: George Osborne.
Appearing before MPs on the Treasury select committee, Nickell pointed out that heavy snowfall at the end of the year - following last year's pattern - could mean a sharp downturn in GDP, followed by an automatic bounce-back as activity returns to normal in the new year.
The OBR, which announced its forecasts alongside the chancellor's autumn statement last week, is now predicting that growth will be broadly flat between now and next autumn. But with the eurozone crisis hammering confidence, negative growth (as economists oxymoronically call it) looks increasingly likely for October to December.
Ireland faces more heavy cuts in public spending next year, with welfare and health departments taking the brunt of the pain under the country's latest austerity budget outlined on Monday.The public expenditure and reform minister, Brendan Howlin, said spending would be cut by 2.7%, amounting to 1.4bn (£1.2bn) of reductions, in the first part of a budget which will continue with announcements on tax increases from the finance minister Michael Noonan on Tuesday.The austerity measures come days before the critical EU summit on Friday which could force Ireland back to the ballot box in the new year. If a new treaty emerges from the meeting of EU leaders, the Fine Gael-Labour government would be obliged to hold a referendum under the Irish constitution. Given the unpopularity of the coalition's cost-cutting programme, there is no guarantee Ireland would endorse the treaty and a rejection could plunge the entire EU into further political and economic chaos.
Ireland faces more heavy cuts in public spending next year, with welfare and health departments taking the brunt of the pain under the country's latest austerity budget outlined on Monday.
The public expenditure and reform minister, Brendan Howlin, said spending would be cut by 2.7%, amounting to 1.4bn (£1.2bn) of reductions, in the first part of a budget which will continue with announcements on tax increases from the finance minister Michael Noonan on Tuesday.
The austerity measures come days before the critical EU summit on Friday which could force Ireland back to the ballot box in the new year. If a new treaty emerges from the meeting of EU leaders, the Fine Gael-Labour government would be obliged to hold a referendum under the Irish constitution. Given the unpopularity of the coalition's cost-cutting programme, there is no guarantee Ireland would endorse the treaty and a rejection could plunge the entire EU into further political and economic chaos.
Via Mark Thoma, David Warsh finally says what someone needed to say: Friedrich Hayek is not an important figure in the history of macroeconomics. These days, you constantly see articles that make it seem as if there was a great debate in the 1930s between Keynes and Hayek, and that this debate has continued through the generations. As Warsh says, nothing like this happened. Hayek essentially made a fool of himself early in the Great Depression, and his ideas vanished from the professional discussion. So why is his name invoked so much now? Because The Road to Serfdom struck a political chord with the American right, which adopted Hayek as a sort of mascot -- and retroactively inflated his role as an economic thinker. Warsh is even crueler about this than I would have been; he compares Hayek (or rather the "Hayek" invented by his admirers) to Rosie Ruiz, who claimed to have won the marathon, but actually took the subway to the finish line.
These days, you constantly see articles that make it seem as if there was a great debate in the 1930s between Keynes and Hayek, and that this debate has continued through the generations. As Warsh says, nothing like this happened. Hayek essentially made a fool of himself early in the Great Depression, and his ideas vanished from the professional discussion.
So why is his name invoked so much now? Because The Road to Serfdom struck a political chord with the American right, which adopted Hayek as a sort of mascot -- and retroactively inflated his role as an economic thinker. Warsh is even crueler about this than I would have been; he compares Hayek (or rather the "Hayek" invented by his admirers) to Rosie Ruiz, who claimed to have won the marathon, but actually took the subway to the finish line.
And they're quite grumpy about it.
(I can't cope with reading MR today...)
Check your e-mail.
one validates Migs:
The Schachtian approach reversed an even older tradition in central banking, according to which the central bank is the banker to the Government. The oldest central banks, those of England and Sweden were explicitly set up in order to manage the debts of their Governments. Nevertheless, the high German inflation during the early 1990s (in the wake of German unification) aroused sensibilities around the issue of inflation. The faulty institutional set-up was then validated by the extended period of falling and then low inflation since mid-1990s. Central bankers were not modest in claiming this as their achievement. The inadequate institutional arrangements are now fairly obvious and widely noted. The Eurozone has a central bank, without a Government, Governments without central banks, and banks without an effective lender of last of resort. With a regime of low inflation, now turning into deflation, the system has no mechanism for eliminating excessive debt in the economy. The deficiencies of the Maastricht arrangements in the present situation are most apparent in the requirement to maintain the present debt to GDP ceiling. Virtually all the countries in the Eurozone are now (October 2011) in breach of that ceiling, including Germany, which has a government debt to GDP ratio of between 82 and 88 per cent. Thus all Governments are obliged to run fiscal surpluses until their debt to GDP ratios are reduced below the ceiling. The fiscal surpluses will of course cause reductions in GDP, unless off-set by trade surpluses or private sector investment. But those trade surpluses and private sector investment would have to exceed the fiscal surpluses for GDP to even begin to rise. Meanwhile actual private sector investment is falling and exacerbating the deflation in the Euro-zone. This illustrates the inappropriateness of the ceiling on government debt: attempts to realise that ceiling can only move the economies in the Euro-zone away from the ceiling, because GDP would start to fall well before governments would be allowed (under present rules) to cease deflating their economies.
The second paper is just as good. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
* Stuart Holland formerly was a Member of the House of Commons and Shadow Financial Secretary to the UK Treasury. In his twenties he was personal adviser on European affairs to Harold Wilson, and gained the consent of Charles De Gaulle to the 2nd British application to join the EEC. He proposed the case for a New Messina Conference which was endorsed by Andreas Papandreou and François Mitterrand and led to the commitment to economic and social cohesion in the first revision of the Rome Treaty in the 1986 Single European Act. He proposed Union Bonds and a European Investment Fund in a 1993 report to Jacques Delors. As an adviser to António Guterres he recommended that the terms of reference of the European Investment Bank should include investments in health, education, urban renewal and environment, as well as green technology and innovation which has enabled the EIB to quadruple its total borrowing and investments since 1997 and to offer the potential to fulfil the aspirations of the EU for a European Economic Recovery Programme.
It's here 'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher
At least 55 people have been killed in a suicide bombing at a crowded Kabul shrine on the most important day in the Shia calendar, raising fears that radical insurgent groups are attempting to unleash a sectarian war in Afghanistan.Around 150 people were wounded when the bomb exploded amid a throng of worshippers, including women and children, who were hemmed in on a street between the Abul Fazl shrine and the Kabul river. A second bomb, which killed four people in the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif, also targeted pilgrims heading to a commemoration of the holy festival of Ashura.
At least 55 people have been killed in a suicide bombing at a crowded Kabul shrine on the most important day in the Shia calendar, raising fears that radical insurgent groups are attempting to unleash a sectarian war in Afghanistan.
Around 150 people were wounded when the bomb exploded amid a throng of worshippers, including women and children, who were hemmed in on a street between the Abul Fazl shrine and the Kabul river. A second bomb, which killed four people in the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif, also targeted pilgrims heading to a commemoration of the holy festival of Ashura.
Kuwait's ruler has dissolved parliament and set the Gulf nation toward elections, citing "deteriorating conditions" amid an increasingly bitter political showdown over alleged high-level corruption. The decision by the emir, Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah, came on Tuesday, less than a week after he named a new prime minister and parliamentary sessions were put on hold. Elections must be held within 60 days, which could complicate plans by the US defence department to station thousands more of its soldiers in Kuwait as part of troop shifts around the region, following the US withdrawal from Iraq at the end of the month. Kuwait's tensions have roots going back years before the Arab Spring protests, but opposition factions could be further emboldened by the current push for reforms around the region.
Kuwait's ruler has dissolved parliament and set the Gulf nation toward elections, citing "deteriorating conditions" amid an increasingly bitter political showdown over alleged high-level corruption.
The decision by the emir, Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah, came on Tuesday, less than a week after he named a new prime minister and parliamentary sessions were put on hold.
Elections must be held within 60 days, which could complicate plans by the US defence department to station thousands more of its soldiers in Kuwait as part of troop shifts around the region, following the US withdrawal from Iraq at the end of the month.
Kuwait's tensions have roots going back years before the Arab Spring protests, but opposition factions could be further emboldened by the current push for reforms around the region.
Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo - The winner of last week's presidential election in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is due to be named on Tuesday, stirring fears of new unrest in the conflict-prone country. The latest result projections, announced early on Tuesday by the country's electoral commission, gave Joseph Kabila, the incumbent president, 46.4 per cent with votes from just over two-thirds of polling centres counted. His main rival, Etienne Tshisekedi, has 36.2 per cent.
Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo - The winner of last week's presidential election in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is due to be named on Tuesday, stirring fears of new unrest in the conflict-prone country.
The latest result projections, announced early on Tuesday by the country's electoral commission, gave Joseph Kabila, the incumbent president, 46.4 per cent with votes from just over two-thirds of polling centres counted. His main rival, Etienne Tshisekedi, has 36.2 per cent.
Nearly 80 people have been killed in the central Syrian city of Homs following a series of kidnappings that began on Sunday, activists have said.Activists and residents of several neighbourhoods said Sunni residents had been kidnapped by "shabiha," armed, mostly Alawite gangs that support the government. An Alawite human rights activists, however, told Al Jazeera's Rula Amin that there were killings and kidnappings on both sides of the divide, with people too afraid to leave their homes.
Nearly 80 people have been killed in the central Syrian city of Homs following a series of kidnappings that began on Sunday, activists have said.Activists and residents of several neighbourhoods said Sunni residents had been kidnapped by "shabiha," armed, mostly Alawite gangs that support the government.
An Alawite human rights activists, however, told Al Jazeera's Rula Amin that there were killings and kidnappings on both sides of the divide, with people too afraid to leave their homes.
US officials have acknowledged that the military lost control of one of its stealth drones while it was flying a mission over western Afghanistan. Iran's official IRNA news agency reported on Sunday that Iran's armed forces had shot down the RQ-170, known as the Sentinel, and are now in possession of it. US officials rejected that claim, saying there were no indications the plane was shot down. In either case, officials said this would be the first Sentinel lost by the US. The officials said they are concerned that Iranian authorities may now have an opportunity to acquire information about the classified surveillance drone programme. "I think we're always concerned when there's an aircraft, whether it's manned or unmanned, that we lose, particularly in a place where we're not able to get to it,'' Navy Captain John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, told reporters on Monday.
US officials have acknowledged that the military lost control of one of its stealth drones while it was flying a mission over western Afghanistan.
Iran's official IRNA news agency reported on Sunday that Iran's armed forces had shot down the RQ-170, known as the Sentinel, and are now in possession of it.
US officials rejected that claim, saying there were no indications the plane was shot down. In either case, officials said this would be the first Sentinel lost by the US.
The officials said they are concerned that Iranian authorities may now have an opportunity to acquire information about the classified surveillance drone programme.
"I think we're always concerned when there's an aircraft, whether it's manned or unmanned, that we lose, particularly in a place where we're not able to get to it,'' Navy Captain John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, told reporters on Monday.
US officials rejected that claim, saying there were no indications the plane was shot down.
"If [the DoD] had their way there'd be no aces in the history of air combat. Baron von Richthofen would just be this German guy who happened to be around a lot of the time when "equipment malfunctions" happened. But it's funny how those malfunctions seem to happen in places where the skies are full of those cool tracer tracks,"
- The War Nerd Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
SRINAGAR, Indian-controlled Kashmir, Dec. 6 (Xinhua) -- India and Pakistan armies exchanged fire on Line-of-Control (LoC), a de facto border dividing Kashmir into Indian and Pakistani controlled parts, Monday night, officials said Tuesday. The ceasefire violation took place along the LoC in frontier Poonch district, around 255 km northwest of Jammu city, the winter capital of Indian-controlled Kashmir, at 21:45 p.m. local time. Indian army spokesman said the ceasefire violation took place after Pakistani troopers resorted to unprovoked firing on Indian posts. "Pakistani troops from a forward post fired several rockets and small arms on our posts in Poonch sector," the spokesman said.
SRINAGAR, Indian-controlled Kashmir, Dec. 6 (Xinhua) -- India and Pakistan armies exchanged fire on Line-of-Control (LoC), a de facto border dividing Kashmir into Indian and Pakistani controlled parts, Monday night, officials said Tuesday.
The ceasefire violation took place along the LoC in frontier Poonch district, around 255 km northwest of Jammu city, the winter capital of Indian-controlled Kashmir, at 21:45 p.m. local time.
Indian army spokesman said the ceasefire violation took place after Pakistani troopers resorted to unprovoked firing on Indian posts.
"Pakistani troops from a forward post fired several rockets and small arms on our posts in Poonch sector," the spokesman said.
WASHINGTON, Dec. 6 (Xinhua) -- U.S. Republican presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich has strong lead in the early-voting states of Iowa and South Carolina, new polls showed Tuesday. Thirty-three percent of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers supported the former House Speaker as the party's nominee, well ahead of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and congressman Ron Paul, who were tied at 18 percent, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll. Texas Governor Rick Perry ranked fourth with 11 percent of the votes, while congresswoman Michele Bachmann got 8 percent, former Senator Rick Santorum gained 7 percent and former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman received 2 percent.
WASHINGTON, Dec. 6 (Xinhua) -- U.S. Republican presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich has strong lead in the early-voting states of Iowa and South Carolina, new polls showed Tuesday.
Thirty-three percent of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers supported the former House Speaker as the party's nominee, well ahead of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and congressman Ron Paul, who were tied at 18 percent, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll.
Texas Governor Rick Perry ranked fourth with 11 percent of the votes, while congresswoman Michele Bachmann got 8 percent, former Senator Rick Santorum gained 7 percent and former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman received 2 percent.
So it looks like a straight fight between Romney and the Not-Romney aka Newt. And Newt will win. and then Obama will win.
But that last point was never really in question. What is important is who wins the house and Senate and that is really open at the moment. keep to the Fen Causeway
Let's keep in mind that Obama in office has been very different to campaign Obama, so it's really not a given that Obama is going to run another stand-out campaign.
He's just as likely to be bipartisan and adopt Newt as VP.
(And that's not nearly as much of an exaggeration as I'd like it to be.)
DUBAI, Dec. 6 (Xinhua) -- Amr Moussa, a front-runner for Egypt' s presidency, said Tuesday that no one shall fear the results of the first round of the parliamentary elections in Egypt where Islamist forces won around 60 percent of the votes. "You cannot ask for democracy and afterwards criticize the result of democratically held elections," said Moussa, a former Mubarak-era foreign minister and secretary-general of the Arab League, at the ongoing 10th Summit of the Arab Thought Foundation in Dubai. Egyptians voted for the first time after the revolution in February, with around two thirds of the eligible voters going to the ballot boxes. The first round of the parliamentary elections, which are held in steps until March 2012, revealed that the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and the ultra-conservative Salafist's Nour Party may wield a two-thirds majority in parliament.
DUBAI, Dec. 6 (Xinhua) -- Amr Moussa, a front-runner for Egypt' s presidency, said Tuesday that no one shall fear the results of the first round of the parliamentary elections in Egypt where Islamist forces won around 60 percent of the votes.
"You cannot ask for democracy and afterwards criticize the result of democratically held elections," said Moussa, a former Mubarak-era foreign minister and secretary-general of the Arab League, at the ongoing 10th Summit of the Arab Thought Foundation in Dubai.
Egyptians voted for the first time after the revolution in February, with around two thirds of the eligible voters going to the ballot boxes. The first round of the parliamentary elections, which are held in steps until March 2012, revealed that the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and the ultra-conservative Salafist's Nour Party may wield a two-thirds majority in parliament.
Israel Defense Forces spokesman said on Tuesday that three soldier had been arrested Monday on suspicion of involvement in the recent `price tag' attacks in the West Bank, with two other soldiers arrested as well. The suspect is a known West Bank activist, who was also recently investigated for forging an official document, in an unrelated case. He is linked to sabotaging IDF vehicles in the West Bank base of the Benyamin brigade, where he served up until two months prior to a price tag attack of the facility.
Israel Defense Forces spokesman said on Tuesday that three soldier had been arrested Monday on suspicion of involvement in the recent `price tag' attacks in the West Bank, with two other soldiers arrested as well.
The suspect is a known West Bank activist, who was also recently investigated for forging an official document, in an unrelated case. He is linked to sabotaging IDF vehicles in the West Bank base of the Benyamin brigade, where he served up until two months prior to a price tag attack of the facility.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Benny Gantz ordered reporters to refrain from publishing remarks made concerning female soldiers during a visit to an army drill in Israel's North on Tuesday. The comments were made during a Golani Brigade drill, when, seemingly unaware that there were cameras in the vicinity, the two top officials - together with the commander of the Golani Brigade - joked about the issue of women serving in the army.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Benny Gantz ordered reporters to refrain from publishing remarks made concerning female soldiers during a visit to an army drill in Israel's North on Tuesday.
The comments were made during a Golani Brigade drill, when, seemingly unaware that there were cameras in the vicinity, the two top officials - together with the commander of the Golani Brigade - joked about the issue of women serving in the army.
Top Three in a Gallup poll conducted Dec 1-5:
Gingrich: 37% (22) Romney: 22% (21) Undecided: 16%
The rest of the Clown Parade are below double digits. Of interest is the polling for Perry (7%) and Bachmann (6%) which, when they dwindle to nothing and/or pull-out could pop Gingrich's numbers to as high as 50%.
Huntsman is still nowhere, running 1% support.
At the moment, Gingrich is in the driver's seat with Romney tagging behind. With 28 days until the Iowa caucuses Mittens had best start rising in the polls to have a hope of winning this thing. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
On average, the NBC and Des Moines Register polls released Sunday had Gingrich 25, Romney and Paul each at 17. Nate Silver has discussed how safe an 8pt lead in Iowa is at this stage in the race.
You have to go back to 1980 to find a Republican that lost IA even though leading in the polls a month before, when Reagan was beaten by the better-organized Poppy Bush ... but then again, its only 1988 and 2008 that the lead was in single digits. On the Democratic side, there have been single digit leads one month out, and two of them had a come from behind winner.
Gingrich probably loses a point or two on bad organization, against two better organized campaigns, but the big question mark is whether he stumbles. I think if Gingrich has a stumble ~ likely in one of the three IA debates coming up ~ Ron Paul would be likely to pick up more support in the aftermath than Mitt Romney, so Mitt's path to the nomination is try to come second in Iowa and then win New Hampshire. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
I agree the lack of organization is typically predictive of a candidate not doing very well when the voters actually vote. However, there's nothing typical about this primary season. Adding in the Tea Bagger revolts in 2010 and the "creeping normalcy" of the internet as a communication medium the old style of organization may not be a necessity in a primary campaign, usually dominated by activists and high information voters. Romney has spent a lot of time and effort to grab endorsements in Florida and, from the polling, it hasn't done him a bit of good; it's conceivable the local "Romney" organizations will end-up ensuring Gingrich voters end-up voting.
It's a weird election. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Gingrich/Romney Paul/Romney Gingrich/Paul Romney/Paul Gingrich sweep Romney sweep Paul sweep Other
Set Gingrich in IA at 50, Romney at 30, Paul at 10, other at 10%.
If Gingrich wins Iowa, say its 50% Romney, 30% Gingrich, 15% Paul, other at 5%: Gingrich/Romney ~ 25% Gingrich sweep ~ 15% Gingrich/Paul ~ 5% Other: 5%
If Romney wins Iowa, something has happened to derail Gingrich, so in NH make it 80% Romney, 10% Paul, 10% other: Romney sweep: 20% Romney/Paul: 2.5% Other: 2.5%
If Paul wins Iowa, ditto Gingrich, but likely to pull a lot more crossover voting in NH, so put it 60% Romney, 30% Paul, 10% other: Paul/Romney: 6% Paul sweep: 3% Other: 1%
So altogether, it could well be: Gingrich/Romney 25% Gingrich sweep 20% Romney sweep 20% Other: 18.5% Romney/Paul 6% Gingrich/Paul 5% Paul sweep: 3% Romney/Paul: 2.5%
Any of which means massively different campaigns in Nevada, South Carolina and Florida. Gingrich's current advantage with older voters and the greater tolerance of the Florida Republican electorate to less-than-massively-draconion immigration policy doesn't necessarily mean much if Gingrich came second in Iowa then fourth in New Hampshire. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
In terms of strategy, Paul was always a dark horse, but his prospects as equal-2nd in Iowa at this stage are much brighter than anyone would have thought, so its incumbent on him to attack Gingrich head-on, as he has already started doing, and as he will certainly continue in the debates. Given that Gingrich is the only speaker to have had a majority of his own part vote in support of imposing a massive ethics violation fine, who has since then sold his position on various issues out to the highest bidder, and is a serial adulterous promoter of "family values", there's ample ammunition for attacks. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
If Gingrich loses Iowa and New Hampshire, his current position in either the national polls or in the Florida polls won't mean squat. Each of the possible IA/NH outcomes mean quite different races ...
I agree.
Spent all together too much time yesterday compiling a list of primaries, when they happen, how many delegates (pledged/unpledged) they assign, how many delegates per month, & so on.
Just to give the monthly figures:
(Pledged/Unpledged) ---- Running Total ----:
Jan - 87/28 87 / 28 Feb - 140/79 227 / 107 Mar - 774/234 1,001 / 341 Apr - 234/95 1,235 / 346 May - 243/35 1,478 / 471 Jun - 304/35 1,782 / 506
Needed to win nomination: 1,145
Super Tuesday (Mar 6) is the Biggie with 481/112. Missouri has a primary on Feb 7 but delegates are actually assigned (won) during the state caucus on Mar 17. (That's the way Missouri corruption politics is. :-)
Unless the environment changes, drastically, it is highly unlikely the GOP nominee will be chosen before the end of April. And quite possibly not until the "mini-Super Tuesday" on June 5 when California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota have their primaries (264/35.)
This primary election is a mess: the GOP has switched to a proportional delegate allocation, states, e.g., Florida, have been penalized 50% of their delegates for moving their primary date, Romney has to be considered the Front Runner by history measures and endorsements yet is running second, or even third, in most of the states for which we have some polling data, e.g., Florida, again, because the Most Likely GOP primary voter can't stand the guy, the current Not-Romney has more baggage than the USPS and GOP insiders can't stand the guy.
Meanwhile No-Hoper Ron Paul is sucking-up about 10% support, and the rest of the Clown Parade about 15% and 65% (more-or-less) of Most Likely GOP voters are saying they may change their minds.
Shorter: who the heck knows? I ain't staking that claim. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
But the elimination of the late winner take all states from the Republican process and the absence of a threshold (the Democrats have a 15% threshold) means that someone like Paul with a distinct and dedicated base of support and someone like Rick Perry with access to a handful of massively wealthy donors could well hang on all through the process, looking for a kingmaker's position even after they lose hope of winning the nomination, and after Bachmann and Santorum are forced to withdraw for lack of funds to continue (and in Bachmann's case, the need to decide if she is going to try to hold her House seat). I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
See it here. 'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher
Yes, the latter got repealed, but Obama always chooses the slowest, thorniest path for any legislation that will improve the situation for LGBT in the US, so they can hardly lecture the rest of the world from a position of virtue. keep to the Fen Causeway
Occupy Wall Street has some conservatives running scared, leaving a window of opportunity to change the dialogue on what freedom really means. Last week, Republican strategist and wordsmith Frank Luntz shared his concerns about the Occupy movement with a group of Republican governors in Florida. "I'm so scared of this anti-Wall Street effort. I'm frightened to death... They're having an impact on what the American people think of capitalism." Chris Moody wrote a must-read article on the matter, including the ten dos and don'ts that Luntz suggested to his audience. As Seth Ackerman pointed out, there's an entire industry around Democrats and liberals trying to get an edge on Luntz with even more carefully polled wordplay. However, by talking directly about the power of the 1 percent over our lives, the broken political process, burdensome debts, and a collapsed labor market, the Occupy movement has gotten Luntz's attention in a few short months. As Ackerman puts it: For twenty or thirty years, Democratic politicians... have been paying what must amount to billions of dollars by now to consultants, pollsters, and think tank gurus to tell them how to talk to the public about inequality in some way that might spark sustained public engagement... Then the Occupy movement comes along and after two and a half months shifts the national consciousness so palpably that Republican governors are scrambling to ask their Rasputins how capitalism can be defended to their constituents back in Peoria. Luntz suggests 10 sets of words, phrases, and concepts to abandon and has some easily defended ones to use instead. "Jobs" and "entrepreneur" are out. "Careers" and "job creators" are in. Many people across the spectrum are noticing that Luntz is suggesting a retreat from the word "capitalism," but few reference where he wants to retreat to: 1. Don't say `capitalism.' "I'm trying to get that word removed and we're replacing it with either `economic freedom' or `free market,'" Luntz said. "The public...still prefers capitalism to socialism, but they think capitalism is immoral. And if we're seen as defenders of quote, Wall Street, end quote, we've got a problem." Luntz suggests retreating to "economic freedom" as an easily defensible phrase conservatives can use to describe the economic status quo. This is astute, as there's been a long, 30-year conservative project to locate freedom in the laissez-faire marketplace.
As Seth Ackerman pointed out, there's an entire industry around Democrats and liberals trying to get an edge on Luntz with even more carefully polled wordplay. However, by talking directly about the power of the 1 percent over our lives, the broken political process, burdensome debts, and a collapsed labor market, the Occupy movement has gotten Luntz's attention in a few short months. As Ackerman puts it:
For twenty or thirty years, Democratic politicians... have been paying what must amount to billions of dollars by now to consultants, pollsters, and think tank gurus to tell them how to talk to the public about inequality in some way that might spark sustained public engagement... Then the Occupy movement comes along and after two and a half months shifts the national consciousness so palpably that Republican governors are scrambling to ask their Rasputins how capitalism can be defended to their constituents back in Peoria.
Luntz suggests 10 sets of words, phrases, and concepts to abandon and has some easily defended ones to use instead. "Jobs" and "entrepreneur" are out. "Careers" and "job creators" are in. Many people across the spectrum are noticing that Luntz is suggesting a retreat from the word "capitalism," but few reference where he wants to retreat to:
1. Don't say `capitalism.'
"I'm trying to get that word removed and we're replacing it with either `economic freedom' or `free market,'" Luntz said. "The public...still prefers capitalism to socialism, but they think capitalism is immoral. And if we're seen as defenders of quote, Wall Street, end quote, we've got a problem."
Luntz suggests retreating to "economic freedom" as an easily defensible phrase conservatives can use to describe the economic status quo. This is astute, as there's been a long, 30-year conservative project to locate freedom in the laissez-faire marketplace.
Unfortunately for Luntz, some in the 99% movement may indeed read the speeches of FDR. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
I'm not sure where I said anything along the lines of FDR being a Great Progressive. I was more referring to his effectiveness as a political propagandist. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
And so you didn't.
BUT it's more empirical evidence supporting Pavlovian Reactions in the higher mammals! Refuting the NCE premise of Rational Actors in a Rational Market.
Thus, my comment is of scientific interest and - by'golly - scientific importance.
(Or some BS like that.) She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
More than three decades after the bricks-and-mortar U.S. Embassy in Tehran was shuttered and diplomatic relations with Iran were severed following the Islamic revolution and hostage crisis, the Obama administration has opened a virtual embassy for Iran to encourage dialogue with the Iranian people. The Web-based "embassy" went online Tuesday with versions in English and Farsi explaining why the administration has chosen a virtual diplomatic mission to further expand its effort to reach out to Iranians even as President Obama's attempts to engage the government in Tehran over its nuclear program have yet to succeed.
The Web-based "embassy" went online Tuesday with versions in English and Farsi explaining why the administration has chosen a virtual diplomatic mission to further expand its effort to reach out to Iranians even as President Obama's attempts to engage the government in Tehran over its nuclear program have yet to succeed.
Proposed legislation to restrict foreign governments' donations to nongovernmental organizations is unconstitutional, Attorney General Yehuda Weinstein warned this week, and if it passes the Knesset, he will not be prepared to defend it in the High Court of Justice."The attorney general's policy is to refrain as much as possible from declaring laws unconstitutional, out of respect for the legislative work of the cabinet and Knesset," Weinstein wrote in a letter to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this weekend explaining his unusual decision. "But in light of the blatancy of the case before us, deviating from this policy is justified. What this means is that if these bills become law, I won't be able to defend them against the petitions that will be submitted to the High Court. That is what I intend to tell the Knesset, and afterward the Supreme Court."
"The attorney general's policy is to refrain as much as possible from declaring laws unconstitutional, out of respect for the legislative work of the cabinet and Knesset," Weinstein wrote in a letter to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this weekend explaining his unusual decision. "But in light of the blatancy of the case before us, deviating from this policy is justified. What this means is that if these bills become law, I won't be able to defend them against the petitions that will be submitted to the High Court. That is what I intend to tell the Knesset, and afterward the Supreme Court."
India last night rejected a European roadmap to a new single, legally-binding agreement to revive the stuttering UN climate talks.Using robust diplomatic language, environment minister Jayanthi Natarajan challenged rich countries to ratify a second commitment period of the Kyoto protocol (KP), and pay what they had promised to developing countries before trying to negotiate a new deal.The comments came ahead of a meeting between Europe, the Basic countries - India, China, Brazil and South Africa - and the US to try to win support for the EU's proposal to try to negotiate a new legally binding treaty by 2015 that would take effect in 2020.China has been ambiguous on whether it will support the EU, while Brazil said it was still in discussions. South Africa's president referred to the roadmap in his speech but did not commit to it.
India last night rejected a European roadmap to a new single, legally-binding agreement to revive the stuttering UN climate talks.
Using robust diplomatic language, environment minister Jayanthi Natarajan challenged rich countries to ratify a second commitment period of the Kyoto protocol (KP), and pay what they had promised to developing countries before trying to negotiate a new deal.
The comments came ahead of a meeting between Europe, the Basic countries - India, China, Brazil and South Africa - and the US to try to win support for the EU's proposal to try to negotiate a new legally binding treaty by 2015 that would take effect in 2020.
China has been ambiguous on whether it will support the EU, while Brazil said it was still in discussions. South Africa's president referred to the roadmap in his speech but did not commit to it.
BP has accused Halliburton of intentionally destroying evidence to conceal the results of tests that showed that sub-standard cement work by the US company led to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill last year.In documents filed at a New Orleans federal court on Tuesday, BP asked a federal judge to sanction Halliburton Energy Services Inc, the oilfield services company's main business unit. BP said Halliburton would not provide computer modelling evidence that their cement work on the Gulf of Mexico oil well that blew out last year was inadequate, and said the evidence on cement slurry testing went "inexplicably missing". "Halliburton's refusal has been unwavering, despite repeated BP discovery requests and a specific order from this court," the company said in court documents.
BP has accused Halliburton of intentionally destroying evidence to conceal the results of tests that showed that sub-standard cement work by the US company led to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill last year.In documents filed at a New Orleans federal court on Tuesday, BP asked a federal judge to sanction Halliburton Energy Services Inc, the oilfield services company's main business unit.
BP said Halliburton would not provide computer modelling evidence that their cement work on the Gulf of Mexico oil well that blew out last year was inadequate, and said the evidence on cement slurry testing went "inexplicably missing".
"Halliburton's refusal has been unwavering, despite repeated BP discovery requests and a specific order from this court," the company said in court documents.
I don't want to end up quoting the entire article -and I am unable to pass a qualified judgment on the technology, but there are plenty of references in the article. Is anyone familiar with it? Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
To me, the telling point is that so many advocates spend significant effort at proving why renewables can't do the job. which of course is false, and renders the debate moot, given the uncertainties. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
That renewables would "of course" do the job is a rather extraordinary claim when "the job" in the article is mostly getting rid of nuclear waste, with the nice side effect that you'd get a lot of energy in the process.
Even if "the job" were purely producing electricity, to say that "of course" renewables can produce 100% of the needs 100% of the time has the quality of brevity, but need not be consired the best constructed argument.
Even if we accepted that as self-evident fact, would they be able to do so with no drawbacks whatsoever (I don't mind having lots of wind turbines around but not everyone agrees, for instance) within the next 5 years? If not, they wouldn't make the debate moot at all.
Is anyone able to elaborate on the subject rather than going for bait and switch? Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
Advanced to solve a shortfall that is a policy choice rather than a necessity. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
This largely centres around the idea that in transitioning to renewables, an apparent capacity gap occurs around 2030 which can either be filled with fossil fuels or nuclear. I suspect he's been nobbled by some more-subtle-than-usual lobbying as he talks about renewables in a way which I think shows a strange bias towards the way we do things now as opposed to the way things are developing. keep to the Fen Causeway
A change of heart regarding nuclear yes, not regarding renewables, which he still promotes.
"I suspect he's been nobbled by some more-subtle-than-usual lobbying"
Do you ever stop to wonder whether anyone may think differently from you without necessarily being the puppet of propaganda? Do you ever wonder whether Monbiot might actually have spent longer than you checking evidence on one of his pet subject?
Someone looks at evidence and changes his mind, surely that is a rare positive thing these days, whether or not he was correct in doing so. Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
Do you ever stop to wonder whether anyone may think differently from you without necessarily being the puppet of propaganda?
Sure, sometimes I just write it off to their stupidity, sometimes I put it down to the arrogance of intellect. Whatever, mostly I gave up expecting people to agree or think like me sometime before my age reached double figures.
As you and I have been around here a while, why do my limitations grate all of a sudden ? keep to the Fen Causeway
However, since we've determined that it's not something that can be discussed fruitfully, it's not something that's discussed much.
Heavy emphasis upon why renewables can't carry the load. And yes, my argument has the benefit of brevity, and the current presence of reality undergirds how well it's constructed. Yes, 100%, 100% of the time, when renewables includes smart demand-side measures.
The drop in cost of PV is just one signal. No experts thought it would happen so quickly, though i was shown exactly how costs would come down while visiting a silicon cell factory in 1977. We wasted three decades.
And as far as transportation fuels? Ban the burning of fossils and see how fast the new technologies arrive.
But this is why i called for a diary. Fast breeders are promoted first as an energy source, with the side effect of eliminating waste, no matter what monbiot says.
PS. Who gives a shit that some people don't like to have windmills around. They are the ones who like to breath coal dust, or eat irradiated sushi. The facts are that most areas don't have enough wind, so wouldn't have windmills.
The real argument is simply, do you want a sustainable world or not. if yes, just get going to build out renewables, and the rest falls into place. prove me wrong? "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
I'm still intrigued as to what happens at night during a prolonged still period over most of Europe. Not a common occurence maybe, but one I have known several times in my adult life.
"We wasted three decades."
I sure won't dispute that, and am sincerely thankful that you never lost heart during all that time.
"The real argument is simply, do you want a sustainable world or not. if yes, just get going to build out renewables"
Well, surely you know that we all support that. I still haven't seen a credible rampup plan that credibly replaces everything within a decade though. Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
The problem with nuclear for the transition is that I'm not sure I've seen a credible plan for rolling out new nukes in the necessary time period either.
The "zero order" is the portfolio effects allowed by a subcontinent wide loose grid of electricity superhighways ~ night falls at different times across the continent, the wind is often blowing one place when it is not blowing another, diurnal patterns of onshore and offshore wind are distinctive ~ even with just wind and solar, a European sub-continent-wide portfolio is far more stable than any individual national portfolio would be.
The first order storage is turning off conventional hydro when the volatile renewable power portfolio is producing to current consumption and ramping up conventional hydro when the volatile renewable power portfolio is producing below current consumption.
Another first order storage for scheduled load is biocoal, which can be stored in the form known as a "pile of the stuff" ... a renewable biomass feedstock for biocoal has a fixed annual budget, but the amount that can be deployed in a day is driven by generating capacity, with the annual budget determining how many generation days are available to supplement the volatile renewable portfolio. In a steady state, that is likely best converted to electricity with direct carbon fuel cells, but as a transition, existing coal thermal plants that are presently obsolete due to the need to refrain from CO2 emissions provide a massive per day back up capacity.
If the first order storage falls short, then the storage capacity of the dammed hydro can be stretched by conventional pumped hydro.
And then if that falls short, then the modular pumped hydro, or ammonia energy storage, or one of the other pure energy stores come into the frame. There is ample technical capacity in existing storage technologies to cope with any shortfall in the first order storage capacities, so which of those to use is an issue of which is the least cost per stored kW over the storage period typically required.
If all you need is sufficient storage capacity to cover the time required to bring biocoal thermal up from cold to generating (in this setting, you do not have thermal plants as "spinning reserve"), ammonia would seem appealing, since its main generation would be for petroleum-independent fertilizer feedstock with the stored power a diversion from output of a energy consumer that is in any event already one of your consumption-shifting electricity consumers ~ that's a big part of the promise of the newer solid-state ammonia production technologies, that in reducing the fixed cost of ammonia production, you reduce the requirement to run the production facilities 24/7 and you have an industry that is far better adapted to have excess capacity that is brought online and taken offline in reaction to smart-grid electricity pricing.
If you need longer term storage, modular pumped hydro is attractive ~ the limit of power stored per metric ton of water is determined by the rise, and while the rise is constrained with conventional pumped hydro to the original fall of the river that was dammed, the modular pumped hydro can take advantage of substantially higher rises, with the pipe and the upper reservoir entirely passive, and with all of the active equipment down by the lower reservoir down in the valley, where its easier to get to for maintenance. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
So the 'still night' problem has to be seen in the context of non-sustainable technology that still can't guarantee reliable power to all of the population.
During the last freeze in the UK it literally became impossible to buy heating oil, and gas stocks were getting close to the bone.
So it's false to imply that only renewables suffer from practical supply issues.
Now, you can argue that Good Nukes™ might solve some supply problems. But the history of nukes has been one of heavy subsidy and practical underperformance.
So it's reasonable to ask if giving similar subsidies to sustainables might not improve supply reliability, rather than degrade it.
- Migeru Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
Well, surely you know that we all support that. I still haven't seen a credible rampup plan that credibly replaces everything within a decade though.
The credible plan is not a "credible plan," rather the evidence that the entire supply chain ramp up of wind and PV has already made. To do it ALL in a decade might take something in rather short supply around this globe, mainly visionary political willpower. China did it in 5 years (though it will take another 5 years to reach European quality standards.)
If you ask SKF (bearings) or Winergy (gearboxes) or The Switch (generators/full power controllers) if they could quadruple production in 6-8 years, they will tell you with the right political conditions, their answer would be yes. What they'v already accomplished gives the answer some weight.
(PS. Nuclear supply chain issues are much worse. Currently there are two forges worldwide capable of producing a modern single containment vessel, which would take some effort to expand to the necessary scale. Could they build 4-8 in China in the next six years? Probably. Probably not with uniform steel.)
Given the noticeably rising anger (sometimes unwarranted) of some of my comments in the past six months, i'm not certain i haven't already lost heart. I am aware of suffering huge depression for the past year.
Regarding Storage. If the idiocracies running the world spent half as much money on storage as they do chasing CCS, we wouldn't be having this debate. It's a whole lot simpler to compress air with nighttime wind and store it in empty gas wells or parliament buildings, for just one of the host of technologies ready at breakthrough stage.
Again, the energy solution is in the mix of so many technologies. And using the existence of already built conventional fuels as the transition period.
The decision for society is rather to face up to and admit the high costs of the externalities. Once that decision has been reached, game over, success. Until then, game on as we try to keep away from being trampled by dinosaur hooves, and crushed by dinosaur bodies falling over on us.
Society might also have to make some adjustments in lifestyle, but i'm not talking about wearing cardigans under our hoodies in the dark.
So yeah, my LP vinyl seems to be stuck on 100%, 100% of the time.
Ramp up plan? Bremerhaven.
"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
Take heart, CH. Wind and offshore wind are mainstream now. Wind power
What? Are you suggesting that all Chinese electricity production now comes from renewables? Or at least all baseload production?
I never heard any such claim and would be extremely surprised (thought thrilled, of course). If it's not the case, we're back to my question of how long to replace, at the very least, every single coal plant. Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
I had meant that China built a huge renewable supply chain in 5 years. China went from 2.6 GW at the end of 2006 to over 52 GW middle of 2011. Which is really something. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
The same happens as when all the nuclear plants are shut down for safety reasons at the same time. (With half the Swedish reactors being off-line at the same time a couple of times, all does not look all the unprobable.)
Solar, wind, coal and nuclear are all base-load technologies - hydro, oil and gas are top-load technologies. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
Though I must admit that I have not followed the topic closely, my impression is that the technical implementation has been harder then the physics, and that the bold ideas of using up waste has been replaced by newly mined isotopes. But I am open for correction here. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
Thorium is found in small amounts in most rocks and soils; it is three times more abundant than tin in the Earth's crust and is about as common as lead. [and later] Present knowledge of the distribution of thorium resources is poor because of the relatively low-key exploration efforts arising out of insignificant demand.
[and later]
Present knowledge of the distribution of thorium resources is poor because of the relatively low-key exploration efforts arising out of insignificant demand.
Something may be "common" and still uneconomical to mine. There's a whole bunch of gold in sea water and even at today's prices nobody has been foolish enough to try and extract it.
Further, I note the extensive use of the Future Tense in the Los Alamos Gee-Whiz page on Thorium Reactors as well as some out-right falsehoods [emphasis added:]
Because of no risk of proliferation or meltdown, thorium reactors can be made of almost any size.
NO risk?
The thorium fuel cycle creates 233U, which, if separated from the reactor's fuel, can be used for making nuclear weapons.
[from the Wikipedia link]
And, once again, we see the nuke-power people are in half-truth/lying mode. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Generation IV reactor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Generation IV reactors (Gen IV) are a set of theoretical nuclear reactor designs currently being researched. Most of these designs are generally not expected to be available for commercial construction before 2030. Current reactors in operation around the world are generally considered second- or third-generation systems, with most of the first-generation systems having been retired some time ago. Research into these reactor types was officially started by the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) based on eight technology goals, including to improve nuclear safety, improve proliferation resistance, minimize waste and natural resource utilization, and decrease the cost to build and run such plants.
So it is still 20 years off (cue xkcd reference).
While on this topic, I would like to point out something else that often crops up among those entusiastic for this technology (I was one once): Generation IV reactor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
100-300 times more energy yield from the same amount of nuclear fuel [4]
While true it is also misleading if the reader thinks "Woo-hoo, lots and lots of energy!" as this is not related to EROI. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
European Tribune - The future promise of Energy amplifiers/ Thorium reactors/ 4th gen nuclear
Cyrille linked a Monbiot article in the Salon which caused some discussion, a lot on other things. In an attempt to refocus the discussion, here comes a diary.
Danke. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
Good thing I am writing under a pseudonyme or my physics courses might be retroactively failed. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
The point is that Pauli called his protegé neutron which was all right since the particle called "neutron" today (the chargeless proton) had not yet been discovered. However, that name was not "copyrighted" since it was only used in private conversations and correspondence and never in print. When, in 1932, James Chadwick proved the existence of a chargeless particle with a mass closely equal to that of a proton, he called it neutron in his paper in the Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. When Fermi, still being a professor in Rome, reported Chadwick's discovery at the weekly physics seminar, somebody from the audience asked whether "Chadwick's neutron" was the same as "Pauli's neutron". "No" answered Fermi (naturally speaking in Italian), "i neutroni di Chadwick sono grandi e pesanti, I neutroni di Pauli sono piccoli e leggeri, essi debbono essere chiamati neutrino".
The family of murdered private investigator Daniel Morgan say Home Secretary Theresa May has offered an investigation into police failings. However, the family said after meeting Mrs May that they are disappointed because they want a judicial inquiry. Mr Morgan, 37, originally from Monmouthshire, was found with an axe in his head in a south London pub car park in 1987 but nobody has been convicted. Four men were charged in 2008, but the case collapsed in March this year.
The family of murdered private investigator Daniel Morgan say Home Secretary Theresa May has offered an investigation into police failings.
However, the family said after meeting Mrs May that they are disappointed because they want a judicial inquiry.
Mr Morgan, 37, originally from Monmouthshire, was found with an axe in his head in a south London pub car park in 1987 but nobody has been convicted.
Four men were charged in 2008, but the case collapsed in March this year.
France's parliament is to debate abolishing prostitution through a crackdown which would criminalise payment for sex. The National Assembly will vote on a symbolic resolution drafted by a cross-party commission which, if successful, will be followed by a bill in January. The resolution urges abolition at a time when "prostitution seems to be becoming routine in Europe". Some campaigners reject the bill, advocating prostitutes' rights instead.
France's parliament is to debate abolishing prostitution through a crackdown which would criminalise payment for sex.
The National Assembly will vote on a symbolic resolution drafted by a cross-party commission which, if successful, will be followed by a bill in January.
The resolution urges abolition at a time when "prostitution seems to be becoming routine in Europe".
Some campaigners reject the bill, advocating prostitutes' rights instead.
It ain't easy being green, but according to Fox Business, Kermit the Frog and his Muppet friends are reds. Last week, on the network's "Follow the Money" program, host Eric Bolling went McCarthy on the new, Disney-released film, "The Muppets," insisting that its storyline featuring an evil oil baron made it the latest example of Hollywood's so-called liberal agenda. Bolling, who took issue with the baron's name, Tex Richman, was joined by Dan Gainor of the conservative Media Research Center, who was uninhibited with his criticism. "It's amazing how far the left will go just to manipulate your kids, to convince them, give the anti-corporate message," he said.
It ain't easy being green, but according to Fox Business, Kermit the Frog and his Muppet friends are reds.
Last week, on the network's "Follow the Money" program, host Eric Bolling went McCarthy on the new, Disney-released film, "The Muppets," insisting that its storyline featuring an evil oil baron made it the latest example of Hollywood's so-called liberal agenda.
Bolling, who took issue with the baron's name, Tex Richman, was joined by Dan Gainor of the conservative Media Research Center, who was uninhibited with his criticism.
"It's amazing how far the left will go just to manipulate your kids, to convince them, give the anti-corporate message," he said.
Damn, he even said he loved Peter, so he was a damn commie pinko faggot keep to the Fen Causeway
(Reuters) - A woman in the border city of Laredo, Texas who was angry because she had been denied food stamps killed herself and shot and critically wounded her two children late on Monday, authorities said on Tuesday. The 38-year-old woman entered the Texas Health and Human Services Commission office in downtown Laredo on Monday afternoon and demanded to speak to a supervisor, said investigator Joe Baeza of the Laredo Police Department.The woman, whom he declined to identify, pulled out a handgun and started walking through the office, threatening several employees, he said
(Reuters) - A woman in the border city of Laredo, Texas who was angry because she had been denied food stamps killed herself and shot and critically wounded her two children late on Monday, authorities said on Tuesday.
The 38-year-old woman entered the Texas Health and Human Services Commission office in downtown Laredo on Monday afternoon and demanded to speak to a supervisor, said investigator Joe Baeza of the Laredo Police Department.
The woman, whom he declined to identify, pulled out a handgun and started walking through the office, threatening several employees, he said
Thousands of Occupy protesters across the US will occupy foreclosed homes today, in what organisers are describing as a "new frontier" for the movement.In New York, Occupy Wall Street has teamed up with local activist groups to secretly occupy an empty home, and plan to hand the property over to a homeless family. Similar action is scheduled in more than 20 other cities.Over the last month many occupations have been evicted from their encampments, as cities cracked down on demonstrations that had lasted for several weeks.
Thousands of Occupy protesters across the US will occupy foreclosed homes today, in what organisers are describing as a "new frontier" for the movement.
In New York, Occupy Wall Street has teamed up with local activist groups to secretly occupy an empty home, and plan to hand the property over to a homeless family. Similar action is scheduled in more than 20 other cities.
Over the last month many occupations have been evicted from their encampments, as cities cracked down on demonstrations that had lasted for several weeks.
It's the ultimate belt-tightening handbook: No Meat? Push an aubergine through the grinder instead. Chew your food long enough for your stomach to feel full. And don't forget to sweep crumbs off your table and into a jar.These are some of the tips Greeks used to survive the second world war occupation that have been collected in Starvation Recipes - a cookbook that has become a surprise hit as millions of Greeks struggle to make ends meet in a new era of hardship brought on by economic crisis.In the grim years of the occupation, starving Athenians invented ways to stay alive, helped by daily advice columns in the capital's newspapers known as "survival guides."
It's the ultimate belt-tightening handbook: No Meat? Push an aubergine through the grinder instead. Chew your food long enough for your stomach to feel full. And don't forget to sweep crumbs off your table and into a jar.
These are some of the tips Greeks used to survive the second world war occupation that have been collected in Starvation Recipes - a cookbook that has become a surprise hit as millions of Greeks struggle to make ends meet in a new era of hardship brought on by economic crisis.
In the grim years of the occupation, starving Athenians invented ways to stay alive, helped by daily advice columns in the capital's newspapers known as "survival guides."
Online rumours are drugs that damage users and harm society, the Chinese state media have claimed, as officials step up attempts to rein in the country's hugely popular microblogs.One commentary, published by the official Xinhua news agency, warns that while heroin and cocaine damage health, internet rumours are worse because they "poison the social environment and affect social order".Another, on People's Daily Online, is titled: "Internet rumours are drugs: please resist and stay away from them." It calls for zero tolerance, suggests they "damage people and society" as narcotics do, and accuses rumour-mongers of having ulterior motives and "kidnapping public opinion".The intensification of attacks on "rumours" emerged as officials said they had detained several people for spreading rumours online and amid increasing controls on microblogs, which have been urging users to register their real names and deleting accounts deemed to have crossed the line.
Online rumours are drugs that damage users and harm society, the Chinese state media have claimed, as officials step up attempts to rein in the country's hugely popular microblogs.
One commentary, published by the official Xinhua news agency, warns that while heroin and cocaine damage health, internet rumours are worse because they "poison the social environment and affect social order".
Another, on People's Daily Online, is titled: "Internet rumours are drugs: please resist and stay away from them." It calls for zero tolerance, suggests they "damage people and society" as narcotics do, and accuses rumour-mongers of having ulterior motives and "kidnapping public opinion".
The intensification of attacks on "rumours" emerged as officials said they had detained several people for spreading rumours online and amid increasing controls on microblogs, which have been urging users to register their real names and deleting accounts deemed to have crossed the line.
Invasive U.S. surveillance programs, either illegal like the NSA's wiretapping of AT&T phone lines or legal as authorized by the PATRIOT Act, are causing foreign companies to think twice about putting their data in U.S. cloud systems. I think these are legitimate concerns. I don't trust the U.S. government, law or no law, not to spy on my data if it thought it was a good idea. The more interesting question is: which government should I trust instead?
Invasive U.S. surveillance programs, either illegal like the NSA's wiretapping of AT&T phone lines or legal as authorized by the PATRIOT Act, are causing foreign companies to think twice about putting their data in U.S. cloud systems.
I think these are legitimate concerns. I don't trust the U.S. government, law or no law, not to spy on my data if it thought it was a good idea. The more interesting question is: which government should I trust instead?
The European Commission is investigating whether e-book publishers owned by Lagardere , Pearson Plc, News Corp and two other firms fixed prices with Apple Inc, blocking rivals and hurting consumers. The decision by the European Commission to open an investigation on Tuesday followed raids on the companies in March this year. US regulators are also looking into pricing deals imposed under an agency model in which publishers set the retail price. Antitrust rules forbid price-fixing agreements designed to shut out competitors or that could result in consumers paying more.
The decision by the European Commission to open an investigation on Tuesday followed raids on the companies in March this year.
US regulators are also looking into pricing deals imposed under an agency model in which publishers set the retail price. Antitrust rules forbid price-fixing agreements designed to shut out competitors or that could result in consumers paying more.
South Central Priorities Committee's MOBBB group, which covers PCTs in Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Berkshire East, Berkshire West and Buckinghamshire, is advising GPs to apply the limit to prescriptions for sildenafil (Viagra), varednafil and tadalifil. Prescribing of medication for erectile dysfunction on the NHS is already subject to severe restrictions, with availability limited to patients with specific conditions including diabetes, multiple sclerosis and prostate cancer. PCTs insisted the new policy was `a recommendation to GPs', but LMC leaders raised concerns it was being presented to GPs as `edicts'.
South Central Priorities Committee's MOBBB group, which covers PCTs in Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Berkshire East, Berkshire West and Buckinghamshire, is advising GPs to apply the limit to prescriptions for sildenafil (Viagra), varednafil and tadalifil.
Prescribing of medication for erectile dysfunction on the NHS is already subject to severe restrictions, with availability limited to patients with specific conditions including diabetes, multiple sclerosis and prostate cancer. PCTs insisted the new policy was `a recommendation to GPs', but LMC leaders raised concerns it was being presented to GPs as `edicts'.
Sócrates - Sócrates Brasileiro Sampaio de Souza Vieira de Oliveira - who has died after suffering an intestinal infection aged 57, was one of the most unlikely of Brazil's resplendent footballers. Bearded and seemingly indestructible, he stood 6ft 3in tall, once admitting: "I am an anti-athlete. I cannot deny myself certain lapses from the strict regime of a sportsman. You have to take me as I am."He was, in fact, a formidable attacking midfielder, prominent in two World Cups in the 1980s, initially a centre forward but, for most of his international career, a dominating figure in every sense, in central midfield. He smoked incessantly, rather like Gérson, a previous general of the Brazilian midfield, he drank large quantities of beer, and if, eventually, such indulgences may have caught up with him, they never seem to have impinged on his extensive football career.The first child of a self-educated father, who named three of his sons after Greek philosophers, Sócrates was born in Belém, the city on the banks of the Amazon estuary and capital of the north Brazilian state of Pará. But it was in Ribeirão Preto, 290km (180 miles) north-west of São Paulo, that Sócrates played with the Botafogo club (1974-78). The greater part of his career (1978-84) was spent with the Corinthians club of São Paulo.
Sócrates - Sócrates Brasileiro Sampaio de Souza Vieira de Oliveira - who has died after suffering an intestinal infection aged 57, was one of the most unlikely of Brazil's resplendent footballers. Bearded and seemingly indestructible, he stood 6ft 3in tall, once admitting: "I am an anti-athlete. I cannot deny myself certain lapses from the strict regime of a sportsman. You have to take me as I am."
He was, in fact, a formidable attacking midfielder, prominent in two World Cups in the 1980s, initially a centre forward but, for most of his international career, a dominating figure in every sense, in central midfield. He smoked incessantly, rather like Gérson, a previous general of the Brazilian midfield, he drank large quantities of beer, and if, eventually, such indulgences may have caught up with him, they never seem to have impinged on his extensive football career.
The first child of a self-educated father, who named three of his sons after Greek philosophers, Sócrates was born in Belém, the city on the banks of the Amazon estuary and capital of the north Brazilian state of Pará. But it was in Ribeirão Preto, 290km (180 miles) north-west of São Paulo, that Sócrates played with the Botafogo club (1974-78). The greater part of his career (1978-84) was spent with the Corinthians club of São Paulo.
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