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I think the fact that Mubarak can not accept the writing on the wall decreases the chance of another military man taking over. If the military could deliver symbolic change they might split the opposition, but with a stubborn egocentric in charge that is hard to accomplish.

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by A swedish kind of death on Fri Feb 11th, 2011 at 07:53:10 AM EST
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I think so too. The army (ie the upper echelons) are now in a spot. If Mubarak had gone, they could have swung things in an "orderly transition" in their favour. They still might, but it's become much more difficult. If they now try to put down the revolt by force, one, they will lose part of their power based on the positive image of the people's army, two, they will face refusal to obey orders from middling to lower officers and soldiers (many of whom are conscripts).

I imagine they're trying to get Mubarak to leave power even now. But he can read the cards too, and he doesn't want to play along.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Feb 11th, 2011 at 08:01:31 AM EST
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a youngish, charismatic successor...

... who would have to take his chances in an open election. I honestly don't think they can afford to mess with the presidentials.

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by eurogreen on Fri Feb 11th, 2011 at 08:04:48 AM EST
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