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i dont see the political will anywhere, you would have thought the Italiian government were in a situation where they would have to pick sides. post revolution an unhappy winner in libya could cause all sorts of damage with its investments  and/or withdrawl of fuel supplies. if the finance minister isnt hammering on berlus door crying death disaster and international bondholders like a shakesperian witch then he isnt doing his job.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Feb 23rd, 2011 at 03:39:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ceebs:
you would have thought the Italiian government were in a situation where they would have to pick sides. post revolution an unhappy winner in libya could cause all sorts of damage with its investments  and/or withdrawl of fuel supplies
This is the reason why the EU and US have been so timid in their reaction to the revolts - if you come out in force for one side or the other you can find yourself in an uncomfortable diplomatic position if they lose out.

Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 23rd, 2011 at 04:13:58 AM EST
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true

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Feb 23rd, 2011 at 04:34:49 AM EST
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Not in this case, because if the lunatic wins, the rest of the world has him isolated. At the very least, you've become an adversary to a lunatic who's shown his true colors.

I don't believe you can lose by picking sides in this case.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin

by Crazy Horse on Wed Feb 23rd, 2011 at 06:37:34 AM EST
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Except that in this case you're dealing with a lunatic who has already been isolated once before, and managed to get out of it. Though in this case, the chances of his winning don't look very high, so if you're going to take any risk at all this looks like the time.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Feb 23rd, 2011 at 07:00:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In that sense, waffling about Mubarak made more sense.

But in the case of Libya now we're potentially talking about actually going in with humanitarian intervention.

It is unfortunate humanitarian intervention has been given such a bad name by the neocons in the past decade.

Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 23rd, 2011 at 07:13:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What do we have the EU battlegroups for, if not this?

The current readiness units are the Nordic Battlegroup (Sweden+Finland+some more) and Battlegroup 107 (Netherlands+Germany+Finland). These together comprise a reinforced mechanized brigade, which should be enough. Air support could be provided by SWAFRAP, if we get bases and are lended tankers. If we say go now, we could be in theater in 10 days, SWAFRAP much quicker.

I say go for it, but I certainly don't think the Swedish government has balls enough for it.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed Feb 23rd, 2011 at 08:05:27 AM EST
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Would you mind refactoring the comments in this thread about outside intervention in Libya into a diary? You're the resident war nerd here...

Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 23rd, 2011 at 08:29:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
CONSILIUM - Security & Defence
EU Common Security and Defence Policy: how does it work?
The EU can decide to launch civilian and military missions to ensure peace and security in troubled regions.


Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 23rd, 2011 at 08:37:53 AM EST
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Depends what you mean "this."

If you mean facing off Ghadaffi's troops, don't think we're there yet. If you mean preventing his air force, including choppers, flying, OK, there's a start.  If you mean covering humanitarian aid supplies as well, why not?

If i was an EU commander, god forbid, i would already be finalizing insertion exercises, but we're a long way from that.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin

by Crazy Horse on Wed Feb 23rd, 2011 at 08:46:34 AM EST
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It's one thing to put the military on alert (as reportedly the Italians have been for some days) and another to launch any action. You need a political decision for that.

What would be inexcusable would be for the political leadership to decide something needs to be done, and the military coming back with "ASAP is in two weeks' time".

Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 23rd, 2011 at 08:57:26 AM EST
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they keep jabbering on about how many clandestines are going to invade, (bossi sez send them to germany, lol), and i keep thinking that's the least of their problems...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Feb 23rd, 2011 at 06:45:52 AM EST
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