I probably shouldn't begin with the one thing that I find personally unattractive in your piece, but the Black Swan idea is entirely uninteresting to me. There is no such thing (the idea, not the swan); there is only finite knowledge and understanding. In other words we are simply unaware of the mechanisms that lead to unexpected events.

In any case I don't think that you're buying that 'critique' of the LTG theses. I do buy the idea that, if 'we' are considering the model, then 'they' are also. Don't know if I give 'them' credit for truly Machiavellian planning - as in austerity to condition us - but it's certainly possible. I think that it's more likely that a segment of 'them' understands the scenario and opportunistically supports the programs that are developed for reasons ranging from proving Calvinist elitism to Mother-was-scared-by-a-Wobblie to pure predatory instinct.

My best vision for the future is essentially yours. Most of my activities out here aim toward communalism and sustainability. Like you, though, I have mine to protect, which is why we live in the Pacific NW. A lot of the environmental disaster predictions land with a lighter touch here.

paul spencer