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Unfortunately, most economics currently taught in universities in the US and Europe makes many utopian assumptions about the behavior of individuals and institutions in the economy and in markets. These assumptions have been challenged by events, but the adherents refuse to change their assumptions. There are many on ET, myself included, who believe that many of those economists, and especially the interests that influence their selection for high posts, prefer the existing theory for its effectiveness as a smoke screen and as a public religion with which to loot the public despite its obvious debilities in explaining how finance and the economy work. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
The question is whether the Irish people should bear the entire cost of solutions that cannot work so that the German, British and other government will not have to confront the insolvency of some of their own banks. The Germans, the British and other creditors would prefer to "extend and pretend". But that keeps in place the problems that led to the current fiasco in the name of saving face for governments and institutions that allowed and even encouraged these loans.
In addition, the policies required of the Irish under the terms obtained by the ECB will greatly impoverish the Irish people to benefit a few wealthy individuals in creditor nations. That is the evil through which I would like to see a stake driven. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
There is no exposure of german banks to genuine irish banks. What happened is that Ireland was because of its no regulation and ultra low corporate taxes a welcome tax and regulatory haven for daughters of foreign banks. One was depfa, others were big SIVs of WEtsLB for example. The cost for these daughters is already borne by Germany. The exposure to genuine Irish banks, who ruined themselves in real estate, was always low and is after two years almost nonexistent.
This whole foreign banks would lose is just a xenophobic talking point to distract the Irish from the responsibility of their own banks and government.
Point being that it takes campaigns to make a movement - much as the current Middle-Eastern situation may evolve. I want for our side to build a recruitment system, which includes propaganda, of course.
We can discuss the philosophical points 'til the cows come home, but at some point we stick our analysis out there - which I do often enough here at home - and try to build a base.
As far as the haircut aspect, you are certainly correct in that the natives will be shaved, too. As Migeru implies, they can suffer either now with the punishments that will accrue to those who fight back; or they can suffer more over the long term as this bailout debacle robs them in smaller amounts, but constantly. paul spencer
The Irish central bank and Ireland in general did not really regulate its own banks. Your theory that that was somehow the responsibility of other regulators to regulate Irish banks let's your neoliberal irish friends of thew hook.
I grant you that the Irish Central Bank failed to regulate its banks. Most likely regulatory capture. But there are two sides to every loan. When the Irish real estate bubble popped there were lots of foreign banks that were owed money. These banks also had an obligation to perform due diligence when making the loan. That they did is laughable. So they and their regulators also bear responsibility. But, especially in Germany, the attitude is that this is all the fault of a bunch of irresponsible banks in peripheral countries - the German version of evil foreigners.
I advocate a fair sharing of responsibility where each party takes a haircut. You advocate having only the evil foreigners take the haircut. Granted my position is unhelpful to German, British and other creditors and their agents in the guise of the ECB and BOE. Were all oxen to be gored perhaps there would be an incentive to construct a fairer and more balanced system that serves the purposes of more than just the elites in Germany. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
And now you have this cunning plan that foreign holders of Irish government bonds are unworthy and domestic holders are worthy. That is fine as as far defending the interest of the Irish elite goes, but why is that now suddenly a pan-european progressive project?
And now you have this cunning plan that foreign holders of Irish government bonds are unworthy and domestic holders are worthy.
We need to return private banking to the days of unlimited personal responsibility of the bankers for the solvency of their institutions. The state can clean up damage to others, but should see that the full burden of fiascoes fall on the bankers themselves. Current policy is the exact opposite. That is the core problem. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
The Irish central bank and Ireland in general did not really regulate its own banks.
Nobody here is disputing that. Ireland was a massive case of control fraud. People should be going to prison for that. But the fact that several highly placed property developers, bankers and Fianna Fail machine politicians should be dining on prison fare for a few years does not mean that the general public has to be flagellated in order to honour obviously bogus debts.
You could make the argument that those who voted for Fianna Fail bear some measure of responsibility, since Ireland is, after all, a democracy. While I agree that on some moral level they do, as a practical matter the buck has to stop somewhere. You cannot flagellate the entire Irish economy in penance over their corrupt politicians, for the same reason that you couldn't hang every German who voted for the Nazi party, or worked in the German armaments industry during the war.
Personal responsibility is all well and good, but you have to draw a line somewhere, or your quest for personal responsibility will turn into collective punishment.
The exposure to genuine Irish banks, who ruined themselves in real estate, was always low and is after two years almost nonexistent.
Well, that would simplify matters greatly. Then the Irish government just needs to shaft some domestic Irish bondholders. Which is always less complicated than shafting foreign bondholders.
There's just the teensy-tiny problem that it isn't true.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
Is is all the fault of Fianna fail now, what?
Yes, Fine Gael and Labour and the greens and the Progressive Democrats were all a bunch of communists.
The buck has to stop somewhere. Killing the Irish economy to punish the Irish for electing crooked politicians is both overkill and collective punishment.
In any case the primary losers now are the poor, old, sick and unemployed, few, if any of whom bear any responsibility for the crisis. Index of Frank's Diaries
Incidentally, why shouldn't Ireland pursue countercyclical fiscal policy? Because the current German line is that they shouldn't.
Labour wouldn't quite know how to find one way, never mind three... Index of Frank's Diaries
Here's my simplified story about the Irish economy:
I call Godwin!
I would be very careful with that call. Were one to ignore the rampant short-sighted, self-serving stupidity employed by so many in their response to the Irish debt crisis, one could construct a narrative composed of the long litany of macro-economic policies and ECB decisions that have consistently been favorable to Germany and unfavorable to the periphery that Germany is attempting to achieve by economics what they could not achieve by military force 70 years ago. That would be worthy of a Godwin call. (I in fact believe that it is a group of wealthy individuals and those who serve them in several countries that, not entirely coherently, is advancing such a goal in their somewhat collective self interest.) "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
Merkel, already the largest contributor to the EU's rescue fund, must walk "a very thin line" as she tries to balance her pledge to do whatever is needed to save the euro with voter hostility to the bailouts, said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Groep NV in Brussels. She also risks harming her country's banks by her insistence that bondholders take losses on future bailouts. German lenders hold more than 112 billion euros of debt issued by the governments of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
German lenders hold more than 600 billion euros of debt issued by the governments of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and the United States.
Including Italy in the PIIGS is a invention of the neoliberal anglo business press anyway.
Eurointelligence: Is Ireland Solvent (Wolfgang Münchau and Raphael Cottin, 24.11.2010)
In the long run Ireland is probably insolvent. Portugal is in a very similar position, perhaps even worse, because of structural problems that might hinder economic growth. But in the short run, the show will go on. The readiness by the other Europeans to bail out Ireland is easily explained. The exposures by EU banks to Ireland, Greece and Portugal are massive. ... Ireland is in a different league than the others. Unlike Portugal, Ireland could bring the house down, and that will still be the case, once Ireland's insolvency is fully realised and understood. A breakdown by countries shows that Germany and the UK are most exposed to Ireland, Spain to Portugal, and France to Greece. If the periphery goes, the European banking system will have its own subprime crisis - in addition to the actual subprime crisis. Where are we headed now? There will be no immediate default. Ireland, and also Portugal, will come under the umbrella of the EFSF. Spain is more solid, but also highly vulnerable to a financial market squeeze. I would expect the EU to step in should Spain come under pressure. That could be through a series of bilateral programmes, or more likely an increase in the lending ceilings of the EFSF. The likelihood of such an event would be hard to predict. I would expect Spain to be ok, but Spain, too, needs to return to some solid growth.
But in the short run, the show will go on. The readiness by the other Europeans to bail out Ireland is easily explained. The exposures by EU banks to Ireland, Greece and Portugal are massive. ...
Ireland is in a different league than the others. Unlike Portugal, Ireland could bring the house down, and that will still be the case, once Ireland's insolvency is fully realised and understood. A breakdown by countries shows that Germany and the UK are most exposed to Ireland, Spain to Portugal, and France to Greece. If the periphery goes, the European banking system will have its own subprime crisis - in addition to the actual subprime crisis.
Where are we headed now? There will be no immediate default. Ireland, and also Portugal, will come under the umbrella of the EFSF. Spain is more solid, but also highly vulnerable to a financial market squeeze. I would expect the EU to step in should Spain come under pressure. That could be through a series of bilateral programmes, or more likely an increase in the lending ceilings of the EFSF. The likelihood of such an event would be hard to predict. I would expect Spain to be ok, but Spain, too, needs to return to some solid growth.
There you go, as of the latest data available on November 24, the exposure of German banks to Ireland was of the order of 120bn. Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman
And if we follow the money, it seems to be british-german belgian conspiracy against Ireland.
Also, most of this is Depfa/HRE anyway and this bank is already nationalised.
The fact that the German government has taken leave of its senses and bailed out German banks does not mean that Ireland has to compound the mistake by bailing out the German government. If the German government wants a bailout, the proper place to argue that is at the ECB, which controls the printing presses. The printing press is where governments go to get bailouts in normally functioning fiat monetary systems.
120 bn total exposure is not the same as 120 bn exposure to government debt.
Why yes, yes it is, since Ireland took leave of its senses and bailed out their own banks, that's precisely what it is. Unless you are in the minority that believes that Ireland has a single solvent bank left with overseas liabilities. In which case I have a "competitiveness" reform to sell you.
It's this bailout that the "Irish rescue" - at usurious 5.7 % interest - is now trying to prevent from collapsing (as it should by any right).
The IFSC complicates matters, in that some of the debt might be owed to branches of German banks there, for instance.
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