Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
Eurointelligence: Aftermath of a "surreal" summit
Leader of Irish Labour Party calls Jean-Claude Trichet a civil servant

Reuters picked up a nice quote from Eamon Gilmore, the leader of the Irish Labour Party, and likely to be the next Irish deputy PM. In an Irish radio interview, he said about Jean-Claude Trichet, who rejects a renegotiation of the Irish loan agreement with the EU/IMF:  "Mr. Trichet is a European civil servant. He's a very important European civil servant and any civil servant will of course always stick to the plan that is there at the moment, just as he will stick to the plan that is renegotiated when it is renegotiated."



Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 7th, 2011 at 04:50:11 AM EST
There is a view in Ireland that we are seriously pissing off all the people who matter in the EU and that they will be doing us no favours when the next Government is formed.  This could get ugly if a Government is forced into a "backs to the wall" type situation.  Unfortunately End Kenny is just the type of leader you would NOT want in any serious argument, negotiation, or bun fight.

Meanwhile the Irish Independent is running front page stories using a bogus company to do bogus polls and drawing even more bogus conclusions from those polls in order to try to create a bandwagon for a single party Fine Gael Government.  Then all would be resolved within the cosy club of the EPP.

This is not shaping up well.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Feb 7th, 2011 at 08:05:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Where do the (Sunday) Independent's loyalties lie these days? I couldn't tell if that was meant to be an attempt to whip up support for single party FG government or an attempt to sabotage it.

But we're screwed anyway, since I don't see anyway to avoid an even more ideologically conventional FG government, at best moderated by Labour - at the cost of what sliver is left of Labour's soul - to be followed by a majority Fianna Fail government in about 18 months when everyone has forgotten about the mess they got us in. You think markets have short memories? Try voters.

This is classic however:

Whilst troubled Labour leader Eamon Gilmore secures a similar vote in Dun Laoghaire, the low first preference vote secured by Ivana Bacik means it is low-profile FG candidates Sean Barrett and Mary Mitchell O'Connor, rather than the Labour dream team, who are poised to win two seats in the constituency.

Meanwhile, Fine Gael, courtesy of Enda Kenny's stunning de Valera-style 25,000-strong vote, is now odds-on to win four out of the five seats in Mayo.

A number of other political heavyweights who are poised to rack up huge personal votes include Eamon Gilmore, Simon Coveney and Fergus O'Dowd, who on today's figures will top the poll in Louth with more than 16,000 first preferences.

Eamon Gilmore the troubled Labour leader and political heavyweight whose personal vote will rival that of Saint Enda's. They don't even expect their readers to remember two sentences ago - probably expect them to be too distracted by the scantily clad young women on page 3.

I fucking hate the Sunday Independent. Have for years.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Feb 7th, 2011 at 08:18:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The last time the SINDO frontpaged a Quantum poll - it was 1 200 respondent phone poll to landlines.  The margin of error of such a poll is astronomical - if done properly - and there was no mention of any of this when they discussed small movements ion trends - they quoted FF at 8% and gave no figures for the other parties!

The current constituency polls are also apparently phone polls to landlines only (excl. the vast majority of younger voters who have mobiles only).

And the analysis crap.  On the figures given Ivana Bacik will easily beat Mary Mitchell O'Connor (FG) assuming a reasonable transfer rate from Gilmore and also more transfers from Boyd Barrett and Ciaran Cuffe.

The last seat is actually between Mary Hanafin (favourite) and Mary Mitchell O'Connor on those figures, but that doesn't fit the FG landslide headline.

Like you I wasn't sure if John Drennan is for real - doing his editors bidding whilst knowing he might well provoke a backlash and the opposite result.

I would be interested in doing an expose on "Quantum Research".  Online I can find no more than an address at the Arthur Cox building. I never buy the SINDO - but do you know if the print edition gave any more details on the methodology of the polls?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Feb 7th, 2011 at 08:44:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"it was 1 200 respondent phone poll to landlines " should have read a 200 respondent poll!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Feb 7th, 2011 at 08:45:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Mmm 200 now THAT's ridiculous.


Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Mon Feb 7th, 2011 at 09:13:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
especially when the pollster is unknown, the methodology largely unknown.  What kind of news editor makes a story on that data (containing no MOE caveats) his front page lead?  The poll was just a cheap vehicle for the "scientification" of old fashioned prejudice.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Feb 7th, 2011 at 09:23:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not like the favours they did us last time around when they were so beneficent?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Feb 7th, 2011 at 08:19:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank Schnittger:
There is a view in Ireland that we are seriously pissing off all the people who matter in the EU and that they will be doing us no favours when the next Government is formed.
What, by telling Trichet he's a civil servant and not a politician?

What's left of central bank independence? | willem buiter's maverecon | Blog by Professor of European Political Economy, London School of Economics and Political Science - FT.com

President Trichet of the ECB is already so far down the road of telling governments what to do and what not to do in the fiscal and structural reform domains, that one is hardly surprised by yet another lecture on budgetary policy from the Eurotower.  Traditionally, continental European central bankers speak very little about monetary policy in public, and are often unwilling to engage in public debate or answer questions about their monetary duties, but carry on endlessly about budgetary and structural reform matters.  It's always easier to speak about things you have no responsibility for, that are not part of your mandate and about which you probably don't know very much.


Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 7th, 2011 at 08:46:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series