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Ulrich Ladurner's post on "Die Zeit"'s site poses five questions worth pondering:

  1. What if the no fly zone doesn't work and Gadaffi takes Bengazhi anyway?
    Flying air support for rebels in Bengazhi (indefinitely?) is not covered by the resolution. Or will they have to send in ground troops?

  2. What if the rebels win and commit massacres in Tripolis?
    The rebels are against Gadaffi. That's about the only thing we know. The West has a long history of supporting unsavory rebel groups such as the UCK in Kosovo and the Mujahedin in Afghanistan.

  3. What happens if there is a military stalemate?
    That could split the country. An inherently unstable situation. Wouldn't Gadaffi have to be chased out anyway with additional military power because of the uncertainty? Who wants to monitor Western and Eastern Libya for an indefinite time?

  4. What if Libya drifts into anarchy?
    Afghanistan in the 90's is the template. A failed state. Soon enough the Europeans would have to wonder: who is going to rebuild that place? Recent experiences show we're not very good at that.

  5. Who is actually for this war?
    NATO members are arguing among themselves. The US don't want to take the lead. Germany is staying out. Katar is sending four planes (where are they?). The Arab League (with all the remaining despots as members) gave the green light but immediately criticized the attacks. Only Cameron and Sarkozy are really hot for this war.


Allied attacks have so far held off loyalist troops from advancing on Benghazi. So the first question is more or less settled for now. But the long-term implications are all but nebulous. In all probability this will not end well.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Mon Mar 21st, 2011 at 02:20:00 PM EST

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