Written a week ago:

TEPCO will be either taken over or bailed out by the state.

Allegedly it was PM Kan that ordered TEPCO to start using saltwater for cooling on the 12th of March. This writes off the reactors, which is probably why TEPCO didn't do it of its own initiative, even after the first hydrogen explosion took place.

TEPCO probably cannot afford to pay for the liability from widespread radioactive contamination.

It would be interesting to know whether they have the 120bn yen lying around, whether they had insurance, or whether the banks so eager to lend them 2trillion yen will pitch in.

We're not at the point where a spent fuel pool becomes a dirty bomb, but that cannot be ruled out any longer. In any case, that's probably not insured by private insurers, and who knows the extent to which insurance covers the damage so far. It might be that TEPCO has a waiver of liability or an explicit state guarantee. The implicit state guarantee always exists - decommissioning and decontamination must happen it technically possible and so the state will do it as a last resort.

In addition, TEPCO is going to have two write off at least 3 reactor cores due to seawater injections. The entire DaiIchi plant may be out of operation for years. It may never reopen or be expanded to add two new reactors as currently planned.

The government's spokesman has already hinted that DaiIchi will be shut down.

In any case, this is a huge operating loss for TEPCO over and above the cleanup for the current disaster.

I have  (quick and dirty) estimated at ¥400bn per year the lost revenue from closing down DaiIchi. Given the average remaining life of the reactors the operating loss could easily exceed the 2 trillion the banks are willing to lend to TEPCO.

Either TEPCO will be bailed out with free money, or it will be split into a good firm and a bad firm with the government taking over the bad firm, or the government will take over the entirety of TEPCO.

A "Tokyo Electric Power Company" must exist as long as Tokyo exists. What needs to die is the idea that an electric utility can be run "for profit" with primary accountability to its shareholders as opposed to "in the public interest".

So, in what may be my last act of "advising", I'll advise you to cut the jargon. -- My old PhD advisor, to me, 26/2/11