First, what would that be? The Tikriti clan, or even the entire Sunni population, compares to the population of Sirte and surrounding areas resp. Sirte and Tripoli. Second, why do you make a point based on addam loyalists? The civil war in Iraq wasn't at all propagated by Saddam loyalists only.

The tribal angle seems less worrisome here given the widespread protests before Gaddafi began his clampdown.

Again, the tribal angle can be judged once the fronts move into Ghaddafi-aligned tribal areas. Well, in fact, we don't even know what locals living between Benghazi and Sirte thought of the rebels from Benghazi.

That he also needs mercenaries doesn't bode well

Mercs are more useful than loyalists in terrorising locals. In a way, the Iraq terrorists using foreign suicide bombers knew that, too.

These revolutions seem to transcend religious and tribal loyalties.

Well, there were deadly Copt-Muslim clashes in Egypt, and, even if from the side of the repressors rather than the protesters, the Shi'a-Sunni angle of the Gulf States protests is rather obvious. Which doesn't mean that the equality and unity slogans cannot turn into lasting social reality, but it does mean that such a positive development is not a given.

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}