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risk assessment was based on the largest even in the historical record rather than probability assessment
That's a robust statistical method. No "probabilistic assessment" will provide a reliably better estimate than the "largest historical event" (which is also a statistical assessment).

So, in what may be my last act of "advising", I'll advise you to cut the jargon. -- My old PhD advisor, to me, 26/2/11
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 30th, 2011 at 05:17:32 AM EST
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