Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
Of course, you have to ask exactly how they're attributing deaths to oil and coal as well.

But yeah, I wouldn't take those numbers on faith.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 08:32:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But the treatment of major catastrophes as outliers is really irksome.

For one thing, it highlights that average quantities are not really meaningful here.

For something like wind, they might, because it's hard to imagine a single accident involving wind power with a large number of casualties. So the rate of deaths per TWh is meaningful.

But for something like hydro or nuclear, where a single accident killing tens of thousands of people is obviously a possibility, a number of "deaths per TWh" can well be close to zero before the accident and worse than coal after the accident. The outlier defence is less than convincing.

So, in what may be my last act of "advising", I'll advise you to cut the jargon. -- My old PhD advisor, to me, 26/2/11

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 08:42:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But it's a defence with an impeccable pedigree. Except that in nuclear power, it's the Boom that's an outlier.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 09:02:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The whole deaths per watt discussion may very well be meaningless, given that we're deep in the land of statistics as propaganda.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 09:23:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It may well be meaningless, but if we are in the land of statistics as propaganda, and this is the most positive thing they can present then it behooves us to poke the argument with a sharp stick and point out that it either is meaningless, or doesn't mean what it is claimed to mean.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 10:56:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but let's acknowledge what we're dealing with.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 11:00:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
unlike some demons, just naming it as propaganda unfortunately doesn't make it go away.

ceebs is right, you have to keep poking away at it till enough people realise.

hard work...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Mar 30th, 2011 at 02:46:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, even with Chernobyl and Fukushima worst-case scenarios, Coal still kills more people than nuclear. So Monbiot wins.

So, in what may be my last act of "advising", I'll advise you to cut the jargon. -- My old PhD advisor, to me, 26/2/11
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 11:02:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Monbiot only wins if you accept the premise that nuclear is needed to get rid of coal.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 03:11:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nuclear isn't needed to get rid of coal. You could always use gas instead. Until it runs out a generation later.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 03:53:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The outlier defence is less than convincing.

because it's intellectual codswallop?

easy not to see no inflation if you exclude food and energy.

tissue of lies, in every direction, cog diss rulz.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Mar 30th, 2011 at 02:41:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have said on occasion that teaching people about outlier removal techniques is one of the biggest mistakes in the teaching of statistics.

So, in what may be my last act of "advising", I'll advise you to cut the jargon. -- My old PhD advisor, to me, 26/2/11
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 31st, 2011 at 02:50:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
there are no outliers, only incorrect priors.
by njh on Thu Mar 31st, 2011 at 05:54:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series