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It's more sensible to use "nukes by type of reactor". Sellafield had more in common with Chernobyl than with Three Mile Island, the latter being more like Fukushima.

But then you get into the question of what to do with large, rare events when the number of historical events in the category is zero. The more you slice and dice the categories the more categories have zero events in them.

So, in what may be my last act of "advising", I'll advise you to cut the jargon. -- My old PhD advisor, to me, 26/2/11

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 10:25:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, obviously, if there have never been any accidents in a category we can take the probability of one as zero.

On the other hand, since we can't reliably work out how many people have been killed in warfare for control of oil and coal resources we can just ignore this cost.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 10:39:26 AM EST
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Colman:
obviously, if there have never been any accidents in a category we can take the probability of one as zero
Except that that's wrong. Even if Laplace's calculation of the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow haw been laughed at, it's still the best method for estimating the probability of an event that has never happened yet.

So, in what may be my last act of "advising", I'll advise you to cut the jargon. -- My old PhD advisor, to me, 26/2/11
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 10:47:28 AM EST
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Now stop it with that science stuff. It's confusing.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 10:48:53 AM EST
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i thought the uncertainty principle makes everything provisional!

so if there has never been a 12 richter scale earthquake in living memory, all nuke plants must be safe.

black swan or black hole, dark art or dark matter.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Mar 30th, 2011 at 02:50:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, that's why we can't calibrate atomic clocks to one part in 10,000,000,000,000

So, in what may be my last act of "advising", I'll advise you to cut the jargon. -- My old PhD advisor, to me, 26/2/11
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 31st, 2011 at 02:47:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not in living memory, we're talking about using the historical, archaeological or geological record.

So, in what may be my last act of "advising", I'll advise you to cut the jargon. -- My old PhD advisor, to me, 26/2/11
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 31st, 2011 at 02:48:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Colman:

On the other hand, since we can't reliably work out how many people have been killed in warfare for control of oil and coal resources we can just ignore this cost.

Should not also Hiroshima and Nagasaki be counted as part of nuclear powers development costs?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 03:43:18 PM EST
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Yeah, just like the battle of Jutland should be counted in the development cost of oil? This is getting silly.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 03:57:00 PM EST
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And don't forget the Second Schleswig War as part of the cost of Germany's development of wind energy.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 04:08:23 PM EST
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Breaking down wars to death by energy components gets silly, yes.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 05:37:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
don't forget winnie gassing marsh arabs. gotta protect capital investment, bring 'growth' to the sambos.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Mar 30th, 2011 at 02:52:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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