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Colman:
obviously, if there have never been any accidents in a category we can take the probability of one as zero
Except that that's wrong. Even if Laplace's calculation of the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow haw been laughed at, it's still the best method for estimating the probability of an event that has never happened yet.

So, in what may be my last act of "advising", I'll advise you to cut the jargon. -- My old PhD advisor, to me, 26/2/11
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 29th, 2011 at 10:47:28 AM EST
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