Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
But what could really happen if Spain defaults?

Is there any conditions in the Maastricht Treaty (or any following) that says that a defaulting country will be excluded from the eurozone? Is there any legal consequence arising from the defaulting to Spain's ncil, presence in the EU council, commission, or Parliament?

Will Spain be forced out of the euro? The treaty will have to be ratified, any modification also, this would be really an atomic explosion, as all the treaties that found the European Union are interdependent. Is Germany actually willing to risk a break-up of the European Union? Is it able to survive this kind of massive destruction of the political frame in Europe?

Or will we see a default of Spain (or another country) immediately followed by the disappearance of yet another principle of the eurozone? Furthermore, I'm convinced that a default would translate as a fall in the €/$ rate, and therefore a sharp rise in the Eurozone economy.

by Xavier in Paris on Mon Apr 11th, 2011 at 06:37:03 AM EST
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