Incidentally, if I remember my accounting class right, in the Danish version of reality you have to book the full expected value of your contingent liabilities.

Either

1. that is inconsistent with mark-to-market accounting or equal to it by definition; or
   
2. expected value could be zero with a large dispersion in either direction

Regarding 2) suppose you have booked the expected value. You now have a contingent liability and a contingent asset, where only one of the two can be nonzero at any given time. How do you book that?

Economics is politics by other means