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Structural trade imbalances would have built up, the surplus recycled to the trade deficit countries through the finance sector and then when recession hits, it turns into depression through the budget deficit ban, the vultures start attacking the debt of the trade deficit countries as the ECB demands shock therapy and demands that the finance sector of the trade surplus countries be protected at all costs.
Methinks inhabitants in the countries in the core that has a structural trade deficit against other members of the core should be very happy that they got away with a warning thanks to the admission of the periphery.
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I like it.
Please also see my query at:
"In such an environment it is not surprising that the ills of technology should seem curable only through the application of more technology..." John W Aldridge
I say yes, we can.
European Tribune - LTE draft: the periphery protects the weaker parts of the core
Has the countries in the core balanced trade with each others? Otherwise, I doubt very much that it could work for the core either.
It might, if they ran an overall foreign surplus. And the incentive to allow the currency to depreciate in value to protect the currency-wide foreign surplus is greater if you have fewer participants. Because fewer participants means fewer partners suckers on whom you can externalise the unemployment cost of deflation. A point that goes double if those partners are themselves high-status countries deliberately pursuing a foreign surplus.
Or, in simpler terms, the Netherlands is less likely to roll over and play dead in a Ger+Fin+BeNeLux currency union than Greece is to roll over in the -17 currency union.
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