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Has the countries in the core balanced trade with each others? Otherwise, I doubt very much that it could work for the core either.

It might, if they ran an overall foreign surplus. And the incentive to allow the currency to depreciate in value to protect the currency-wide foreign surplus is greater if you have fewer participants. Because fewer participants means fewer partners suckers on whom you can externalise the unemployment cost of deflation. A point that goes double if those partners are themselves high-status countries deliberately pursuing a foreign surplus.

Or, in simpler terms, the Netherlands is less likely to roll over and play dead in a Ger+Fin+BeNeLux currency union than Greece is to roll over in the €-17 currency union.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Jun 2nd, 2011 at 04:04:55 PM EST
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