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Well, your timeline is overly optimistic. Even if Greece defaults tomorrow, it will not have recovered by 2015, let alone become a competitive beacon of industry.

You also left out the years of fuel rationing and the dead coal miners in Greece when they were cut off from fuel imports. And the years of agricultural command economy, as they ran a crash programme to convert cash crops to food crops. And the attempted fascist coup d'etat sponsored by the former owners of those cash crops (and foreign banksters). And the humiliating concessions Turkey extracted while Greece was cut off from European diplomatic support.

On the positive side, you left out the Spanish funnelling of part of the hard currency it obtained on favourable terms from the ECB to alleviating the food shortages during the winter of '11/12. Most contemporary historians believe that if the rationing system had resulted in actual hunger during that first winter, the democratic state would have lost its legitimacy, potentially leading to open civil war between communist and fascist militias. As it were, the Athens Food Riots saw only three protesters killed and a few dozen police officers wounded.

Unfortunately, the European project remains shaky even to this day, with a generation of conservative politicians in Germany, France and the Netherlands having been brought up on a Dolchstosslegende in which the Greek default caused the Panic of 2011 and subsequent industrial depressions, as the EPP-PES governments of those countries embraced AusterityTM and appeals to the Confidence Fairy when their banks crumbled. And even in the reconstituted ECB, the BuBa remains an obstructionist voice of "sound money" ideology.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon May 30th, 2011 at 07:32:51 PM EST
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