I think we both come to the same conclusion via an intuitive gestalt. I posed a question to whch I believe I have the answer, but there are an enormous number of variables involved. But you are right that Europe has the underlying productive capability to survive. That is the actual capital. The capital markets are supposed to be a mirror of the actual, but they have been twisted into some version of a fun-house/house of horrors mirror.

The good news it that the capital markets are much more of a social construct than are the underlying capital assets. The bad news is that we don't know how quickly one very distorted mirror can be replaced by one that gives a better image. It will be a fight over myths and images. It is not as though there are not very powerful vested interests at work here that want to keep the existing system and just dial up the distortion. The problem is basically political. Unfortunately, the existing politicians are, almost uniformly, useless to actively harmful.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."