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Interannual wind resource can vary 20% or more as well. But thanks for digging.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin
by Crazy Horse on Thu Jun 23rd, 2011 at 10:52:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I couldn't find a source with detailed stats, but it seems RES didn't invent the number, because Ireland's grid operator writes the following in its 2010 Annual Report:

However 2010 was a highly unusual year with a wind
capacity factor of 23%, significantly lower than the comparative figure of 29-31% over the previous 10 years.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Jun 23rd, 2011 at 01:09:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That is well within the realm of the possible. A 30% reduction (30/23-1=30%) in NCF represents a 16% drop in wind speeds (7.3/6.3-1=16%).

Numbers are from the model of my latest project adjusted to get comparable NCFs...

by jam on Fri Jun 24th, 2011 at 03:40:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
where does the 7.3 and 6.3 come from?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jun 24th, 2011 at 04:07:56 PM EST
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