A full hydrological simulation would be a whole other thing. You'd need a full set of USGS data and some fancy modelling tools.

But Irene is currently weakening, and seems unlikely to pick up power again. So it's looking like the damage may not be as bad as everyone hoped for expected.

I have no idea if this means NYC dodged a nuclear bullet. So I'll just mention again that whatever happens is going to be clear proof that windmills are a DFH conspiracy to raise your taxes.

That's all.

Oh - and if Irene doesn't push the water over the walls, it's almost certain some other event will by the end of the century.