Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I was more thinking of the years past 1980.

Germany no longer had a CA deficit by then.

Now you are shifting the goalposts a bit.

No. If conditions change, what is unsustainable can become sustainable, and vice versa. But given no growth, any CA deficit is unsustainable.

Is there even zero nominal growth in any european country?

On average over the past half decade? Yes.

But of course the peak-to-trough part of the business cycle is an outlier...

So if assume zero nominal growth for  a decade, then even a small current account deficit year after year is not sustainable. But that rest on two assumptions. How is this relevant regarding France or Belgium or even Italy?

It's relevant because you have an implicit assumption of zero interest rates stuffed in there. The actual sustainability condition is that total hard currency liabilities normalised to GDP must not diverge when time goes to infinity. It is not difficult to derive the sustainable CA deficit given exogenous nominal growth rates and nominal interest rates, but I have a train to catch now so I'll leave the algebra to the reader.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Sep 7th, 2011 at 09:35:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Others have rated this comment as follows:


Occasional Series